Friday, December 25, 2015

Savagery, Survival and the Bell Curve

Savagery, Survival, and the Bell Curve.

Freud had it backwards

Fig 001
Sigmund Freud’s quest to understand abnormal behavior missed the part about normal behavior.   Freud also established the myth that all human behavior is death oriented.  IMHO says that life is.  His “wish world” is the Real World.  Religion of his day is ideology of today.

Normality Defined.  What the hell do you mean by normal? 

The exact measure of what is normal, consider all the people you have met in family reunions, marriages, funerals, Thanksgiving and Christmas, may including the office party.  Choose a value or standard you feel applies and arrange all of them into rank ordering depending on the measure you chose.  The Middle Two Thirds is Normal. The statistical term used is the normal “bell” curve. 

Fig 002
If the value you measured could be assigned to each and everyone in the group, the sum of those values (income, weight, IQ, or EQ) divided by the number of individuals is the Mean (also called arithmetic average).   The normal “range” of what was measured can be measured by how tight the shot group is, and this value is called a Standard Deviation, which in management speak is Sigma.  They give “Black Belts” in Six Sigma which six accounts for 99.72% of the cases.
IMHO uses two Sigma or two Standard Deviations in the middle to define “normal”. That equates to 62.68% on the chart above.    Four Sigma gets you 95.44% of the total.  Six Sigma (Black Belt) gets 99.72% of the cases. 

Simply put, there are two thirds in the middle and one sixth at each end.  Saints at one end, Sinners at the other. .

Fig 003

Pareto’s Law
Normal Curves as above are called “two tailed” distributions.  Pareto’s Law deals with “one tailed” distribution which holds that 80% of the results come from 20% of the causes.  Thus 80% of the hours come from 20% of the causes.  80% of the crimes are committed by 20% of the criminals. 
The “normal” curve applied to everyone in the middle two thirds (Two Sigma) commit 20% of the crimes. One Sixth commits 80% of the Crimes (Sinners) and one Sixth commit no crimes (Saints).

Fig 004

Normal people don’t run for President, nor even any work that takes time and effort away from survival (Food & Family, Roles, Rules and Tools) and a normal way of life.  They are neither Saints nor Sinners.  In any group focused on a problem, only one in six gives a damn.  Of them, only one in six will read the mail. Of them, only one is six will go to the meetings, and one sixth of them will run for office.

Statistical Significance.

This goes to the “so what” category.


 It doesn’t matter what is being measured, so long as it is statistically significant (it’s not a accident of collection or errant definition).  In short, small samples don’t mean much like four out of five hitmen prefer 9mm if only five hitmen were asked.  Then there is the definition of what is a hitman.
One and one equal two only if one and one are equal.  The sum of one banana and one apple is two fruits?  If matters what to who how high the water is, or how deep?  Bridges and boats differ. 

Circular Error Probability (CEP)

For those in the Field Artillery or combat aviation the CEP or Circular Error Probability is given as the odds of a target getting hit by a round or its fragments. Also known as a shot group


 Likewise, it is of fair importance that one knows the CEP of incoming rounds.   The German 88 Flak gun in an anti-tank role was a deadly threat to whomever rode in the valley of the deathly open space. The 88 had a very tight CEP and the MG 42 too for a light machinegun.

Images from the East Front


What is Normal Habitual Behavior?

The term “culture” is too politically correct for the warrior or wannabe warrior when killing the bastards is all that matters.  The tricky part is making the bastards out of habit do something stupid.  Sometime you want to corner them, other times to split them up.  Sometimes you want to make them charge, and sometimes you want to make them run, and sometimes you want them to quit.   Sometimes you want them to switch sides. 

Sun Tsu said that wining without fighting is the best.  Given that fighting without winning appears to be more often than not, perhaps this knot should be untied.

It all goes to the normal spread (middle two thirds) which may include the middle stamp out the ends.  The sum of our behavior goes back to the very first cell division back whenever.

From the Movie "Pulp Fiction" opening scene


Pareto’s Law and the Alpha.

The one sixth that does eighty percent of the results themselves fall under a smaller normal curve either one or two tailed.  In nature there are animals called “alpha” who get the eighty percent of the attention, food and/or sex.  They are more aggressive, more territorial, and more jealous of perks. It is the Alpha that drives action.

Mind Over Body

Ontogeny recapitulates Phylogeny on PurposeThe choices made at each bifurcation of the genealogical tree are, so says IMHO, neither random nor mutation.  Life, instinctively is for living, not dying.  The attractiveness of the alpha who gets the food, gets laid.  The will of the giraffe resulted in making a longer neck to reach the top branches.  This, of course, takes a continuity of effort. 

The behavior of trained animals can be through selective breeding produce breeds of very different characteristics.  Natural selection leverages that capacity to change as applied by the will of the bred.   
Likewise, the adaptation to a high level of trauma also marks the DNA with reactive action.  Most warm blooded species hate the cold blooded.  The horse that shies from a bitty snake, is a reflection of the time when they weren’t so bitty.

PLAY as Survival Training

The young of most species often display the record of choices made in the genealogical past as the individual grows.  Consequently, Play is training for roles to come. 
 In vertebrates the decision to mate in made by the female of the species based on an evaluation of the suitability of the male’s probability of producing viable and competitive offspring.  
The “suitability factor” as analyzed by the female often defies analysis, which any of my three ex-wives can note, that IMHO is clueless. Normally it is the male of the species that sports extra visual cues, while the female is often camouflaged to fit in the normal back ground.   The song and dance that males have to do is often quite extraordinary, but some mating rituals are synchronized.

Often the attractiveness of the male is through demonstration of attractive skill sets as often demonstrated during “rutting season” when the males compete for attention and for dominance a proof of a need to breed.

The males in some species meet the rest of the herd, flock, or gang only during mating season, then they go off and do “guy things”.   Some animals are really strange about that.  This showing off of the mating ability of the male often extends to combat, mock or not. 

One of the basic rituals to show competitiveness or suitability goes to showing the ability to Feed. The Dinner and a Date also extends to “doing lunch” and the meal prepared for guest of honor or on the occasion of a big meeting.  Such is often the sum and substance of a day well spent.
From the UPORFA Conference in Buenos Aires

The Psychological Roles necessary to demonstrate the capacity to Feed and Breed, goes to that of the Mother, Father, and Child.  The mother nurtures, the father protects, and the child is dependent on both.  In some species, the statistical probability of infant survivability is achieved by long gestation, by redundancy (lots of kids), and by effective combat skills, attitudes, procedures, tactics, and techniques.



Habits and Habitual Behavior.

 Normal behavior (two Sigma) then should be called “habits” of any given group set.  In sex, war and politics.   There is a resistance within the Warrior and Bellicose Creed that utterly hates any reference to culture as too politically Correct, Homo, and/or Coffee Break poppycock.
 If, however the Warrior is also a Hunter, then the concept of the habitual behavior becomes important.  One needs to know when and where the prey feeds, breeds, and/or hides out.  The study of enemy doctrine and task organization is exactly the same as studying where fish, fowl or reindeer are so they can be your lunch or trophy.   

This goes to what IMHO calls F4F and consists of the basic structure of habitual behavior aka culture: Food and Family, Roles, Rules, and Tools.

Tools include techniques, skills, equipment and so forth. The selection of Tactical Imperatives in a physical confrontation is a way of analyzing survival behavior, human and/or animal. The Vertical axis of the Tactical Imperative menu is the parts of the being or groups anatomy that is used in combat. This includes the brain, nervous systems, vision, hearing, voice, lungs, guts, legs, arms and fists.  The horizontal axis is a simplified set of modes, stimulus and response which when activated is like a four dimensional Pachinko game.

Normal hunting behaviors involve both offensive and defensive (stimuli and response) in a single maneuver.  The lion is evading detection by lowing the profile in the grass.  The Impala in the second frame has successfully evaded the clutch of this old one eyed lion.

The social value of being able to bring in the dinner enhances the image of the hunter in the soul of the diner.  Symbolically, the human species is still tied to the dinner-date ritual, but other features that add to the attractiveness of the male to the female.  As for female wiles, a wink and a wiggle turns the hero into a blank dot. 

Group behavior of many species have collective as well as individual skill sets for the purposes of being the diner instead of the dinner.  Or at least avoiding being lunch.

The Military Decision Making Process (MDMP) should include Technology and Habits to make it METT-TH.  Time belongs under terrain as weather is already there including BMNT and time to do the mission is already in the Mission Statement.  Habitual behavior applies to all the other factors including Mission.  The enemy’s doctrine and doctrinal templates are in fact a study of enemy habits. 
This changes the old acronym by adding technology, and expanding civilian considerations to include all habitual behavior, even ours

Body Over Mind, Usually

In the normal course of living, it is habitually Body Over Mind that drives everyday choices.  Reason only interferes with habit when there is a choice or decision that can be consciously noted, identified, and/or measured.  This goes to steak vs chicken, regular vs unleaded, beer vs wine, buy or to buy which is the question. The rest is run by habits coded within the DNA that also cues behaviors at selected points in the growth and experience of the individual.  Like puberty and senility.

Central to understanding habits of one or many includes an understanding of the Roles necessary to nurture and protect the young.  These, in vertebrates include Father, Mother and Child. Since the child is not up to speed, they become the favorite food for predators.  The psychological habitual roles play are summed up in Transactional Analysis as the urges to Rescue and Protect the Victim (child).

Thus the psychological drama triangle developed by Dr. Karpman is the rotation of roles even when there is neither victim nor villain.     

The dramatic roles two pairs of three, defense and offense can be played by a single person with neither villain nor victim.  It is only necessary to create the illusion of a villain or a victim.  This is the heart and soul of politics of the one and of the many.  

Stamp Collecting – Victim to Victimizer

Each time a role is switched with another player, the player gets an emotional “Stamp” certifying the proper buzz (high or low).  Charlie as player gets 3 victim stamps while Lucy gets a Manipulator stamp. Charlie then trades the 3 victim stamps for one dump stamp which can be traded in for depression stamps, rage stamps, and murder stamps.  A skillful player can play this on one hand.

The Rescue or Protection of a Victim is the favorite pastime of politicians and a motive for murder, mayhem, and war.  The common phrase heard in the courthouse, is that the defendant is the victim (defense) which justified offensive measures such as murder, manipulation, and madness. There are few political arguments that do not include defending children as the ultimate objective of Candidate Foghorn.    It is the fundamental justification used by Jodie Foster in Elysium:

As the justification for shooting down two ships filled with the sick from earth. 

The Rules

Each species, group, herd, tribe, clan, pod, or flock has sociological rules to govern habitual behavior to facilitate successful Roles in order to Feed and Breed (Food and Family).   Most of these behaviors are the net result of DNA coded instructions, which instructions require integration of local circumstances.  IMHO had divided a model of these Rules into two sets: Social Standing and Relations with the Physical World: 

For a Templar set of Rules they include:

And a different set for the Saracens:

The arm and hand signals used in these illustrations was developed by IMHO to avoid another acronym with eight wordy values to one in which uses the hands in open discussion with those who need to know.  

Fate is what is called “sources of authority” in political science.  In WW 2, surrender pamphlets dropped on German troops had to look official and be signed by an authority like Ike and/or Monty.  

WW 2 Propaganda is filled with examples of how the habitual behaviors of a culture could be leveraged to do or do not do something that supports allied objectives.  These go straight to the Food and Family biological imperatives by leveraging the Roles, Rules, and Tools of one side or another.

The Salacious and the Savage

 Two Step Bullshit.  Leveraging Roles, Rules and Tools back to Food and Family Is the hallmark of WW 2 propaganda leaflets, like the “safe conduct” above.   Themes and Symbols are the alphabet of Psychological Operations. The selection and design of themes and symbols are directed at specific target audiences, the most effective being the Two Step Bullshit which is used when the Decision Makers cannot be touched, but who are approachable to someone you can reach effectively.  

The NVA and VC military efforts in South Vietnam had failed by 1969 with their forces in Cambodia moved north to Laos.  The VC local guerilla forces under COSVN had been consumed by superior firepower of the Allies in Vietnam.  Some say that that the NVA objectives included annihilation of COSVN (Central Office of South Vietnam), the government of the Viet Cong. 

Communist efforts to seduce the drafted US soldiers to switch sides failed utterly.   So the draft dodgers and cowards on campus elevated treason to a virtue.  This was classic Two Step Bullshit which eventually reached Congress which pulled the plug and snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

Who’s Laying Her Now? 

This is a famous Nazi series dropped on US troops, The Girl You Left Behind

In addition to someone else getting yours, the price you pay is for someone else’s profit.
Then there is the heartstrings approach of what happens to the Family with you gone.

The emotion that the Germans wanted was that the GI would either quit or slack off fighting Germans.  The Grand Prize is to get the enemy to switch sides as indicated in the VC pamphlet. This goes to legitimizing the enemy as a real friend.   Machismo helps.

This requires leveraging the Rules that define who is the victim here, and assigning a Rescue and Protect buzz to the Traitor.

The fight against Bolshevism was the number one enemy that Europeans could unite.  In addition to Waffen SS units from European nations, the French sent a Volunteer legion and Frenchmen joined an SS Division Charlemagne (fought to the bitter end in Berlin). 

Essential to effective propaganda is the portrayal of the villain as murderous, manipulative, and/or mad so that the hero can play the same roles against the Villain (Offense vs Offensive Offense).   The Blue and Red get hard to discriminate one from the others. 

Fear and Loathing

Key to such vilification is to arouse both Fear and Loathing.

The Victims portrayed in such propaganda are women and children, as they ideologically are weak and vulnerable to villains of an inferiors sort, as in bestial. 
In George Orwell’s book “1984” portraying a totalitarian state of the future created “NewSpeak” as a way to prevent dissension, dissent, and dissolution.
The aim of Newspeak is to remove all shades of meaning from language, leaving simple concepts: (pleasure and pain, happiness and sadness, goodthink and crimethink” ….Wikipedia on Newspeak.

The inferior are out to get you!

Protect your women, children and old people from the savage beast. Who, ironically are super beings that manipulate the world unseen by the upstanding and honest!

The Manipulative and vindictive are everywhere.   The elections now in swing at this time are full of villainy from the manipulative vicious and evil.  Including toenail fungus.  


Propaganda leverages the imagery of the wholesome family as that which must be nurtured and protected.

In accordance with the Rules (Fate) in order to get Fame and Face, one must use the Tools to smite the foe.  Harshly.


To be continued….
Gordon S Fowkes, LTC USA RET, M.Ed., KCTJ

Friday, December 4, 2015

Inverse ISIS Adversity

Inverse ISIS Adversity
Horrible as ISIS psychological operations are, they also open a number of windows on their deepest fears.  The key to understanding this is the Law of the Inverse Attribution Reflex aka LIAR.  The LIAR brags of his weakest virtue and blames others with his strongest vice. 

“The sick in soul insist that it is humanity that is sick, and they are the surgeons to operate on it.  They want to turn the world into a sickroom. And once they get humanity strapped to the operating table, they operate on it with an axe.”  104. Eric Hoffer, The Passionate State of Mind.

The massacre and torture of women, children, and any who don’t bow at the right angle is an exemplar of the deepest fears that women, children and non-conformists pose to the faithful.  The same gimmick was used by the Nazi’s against Jews who they accused of being both inferior and a clear and present danger to the Volk.  Folks, it’s one or the other, Inferiors cannot be a danger to those who are superior.  The constant refrain of the Super Race was overcompensation for a deep feeling of inferiority.  
From Wilson's Favorite Flic - Birth of a Nation

The constant rampage against unbelievers by ISIS et al, is in fact a deep fear of the power of unauthorized thought.  If, as a thousand years of Muslim protection of those “Of the Book” (Books of Abraham) showed, that those “of the Book” did not threaten the continued existence of Muslim polities. Why now? 

The constant use of Gitmo Orange is testimony of the devastating threat that Gitmo posed to the terrorist that is presented. If not, some other color would be used, if any.  The necessity of continued use of Gitmo Orange also shows the tricky and resourceful of their greatest fear…orange.

The Soviet Massacre of the bourgeoisie paved the way for the apparatchik who took over the same dachas, wheels, and sycophants. One the revolution is attained, it must be conserved.  The counter-revolutionary is the image of the revolutionary on the flip side of the cycle. Absent any connection with the real world, the cycle goes in circles and nowhere else.

LIAR works within normal parameters, as defined by one standard deviation above and one below the mean. That is Two Sigma. A more precise measurement is readily available for the reader’s verification by taking everyone the reader meets at family gatherings (Christmas, Thanksgiving, Party Day, wedding and funerals) and rank order all in accordance with any useful variable.  The middle two thirds is normal.

LIAR is also a guide for the formation of tactics, techniques, procedures as well as strategies to unleash the power of the weakness against the powerfully weak.  Instead of making super mensch out of ISIS terror, it is to delegitimize fear of the weak as power.  Humor works by making the terrorist a joke, preferably within their own ranks, as such assaults the sense of self-worth.   

The Victim to Victimizer is a cycle tied to Karpman’s concept of the Drama Triangle of victim, rescuer and prosecutor.

This, however requires a villain, whose villainy justifies counter villain extraordinary measures.

Sunday, November 15, 2015

The War of 52 Pick Up

The War of 52 Pickup
3rd Edition

Gordon S Fowkes


Most wars start by accident, for the wrong reasons and in the wrong places with results no way near what was expected. So how does one raise and fight the forces to win when winning is usually defined late in or after the war? Perhaps bending the enemy’s will to resist should go to the states of mind and processes of thinking as much as we do with Order of Battle and Courses of Action.

Dr  Strangelove

Winning battles is a process of building up your forces to be able to tear the enemy’s down. Winning wars, however, is like 52 Pickup. You have to grab the right cards at the right time. It helps to have a good hand.

Broken Arrow:

Coach Carter & Tuckman’s Group Dynamics

From “Remember the Titans”, the movie:
The story of the Tigers trip from last to state championship as shown in the movie is identical to that which the new commander must go through. It is also a guide for what the opposing side must do, which points the way to messing up his game.

Fig. 02
It’s called Tuckman’s Five Stages of Group Development. Bruce Wayne Tuckman (born 1938) has carried out research into the theory of group dynamics. In 1965, he published one of his theories called "Tuckman's stages of group development".
In addition to these taxonomies of behavior, one more is needed to spot the game in the bush, that which is described in Transactional Analysis developed by Dr. Eric Berne in the Fifties. While it has been used in individual (clinical) treatment, it is better suited to group dynamics. Dr. Berne’s book on group dynamics: The Structure and Dynamics of Organizations and Groups is a classic and ought to be rigorously examined in Political Science, Military Science, and Sociology more than Psychology.

Before there were the Titans, there was the Continental Army. The same sequence of Tuckman’s four stages shown in “Remember the Titans” is what Von Steuben did in Valley Forge.

Fixing a Broken Army (Von Steuben)

“Baron” von Steuben remains one of the best exemplar of how to take an army that just had its ass kicked from Manhattan, Philadelphia to Valley Forge. Von Steuben joined on February 5, 1778, three years after fighting had started. What he found presented a number of problems, a lack of common doctrine, poor unit cohesion, and poor performance. He was then appointed with the temporary rank of Inspector General with the additional caveat to fix things.


He addressed the problem by selecting a hundred men as a model company and trained them who then became a cadre, the doctrinal exemplar of doctrine became. He then created a “Washington’s Guard” of 120 from each of several regiments, who were trained by the cadre in order set the example in their parent regiments.

Baron von Steuben at Valley Forge

The problem of no common doctrine was due to no common manual of arms and battle drill between the colonies. His book, “Regulations for the order and discipline of the troops of the United States” also known as the Blue Book became the basis for US Army doctrine until after the War of 1812. The problem of inconsistent doctrine is the fundamental reason for the Second Amendment in addition to the Specified Power of the Congress in providing for the regulation of the armies.

The Blue Book

Fig. 05

(IMHO) The Blue Book represents the totality of doctrine that today would take a C‐5 to haul.
As it was difficult to train a mixed mess of trained and untrained troops in the same formation, he also establish a graduated set of “schools” from individual to regimental before returning the soldier to his parent unit. Thus a balance between centralized individual and unit cohesion was maintained. This dual approach between individual and collective training has some very sharp edges.

That which makes the Blue Book so valuable is that it is a snapshot of Close Order battle which was the norm from the Battle of Kadesh to the Eve of WW 1 in which formations soldiers in the main force fought shoulder to shoulder. This demanded the same movements and actions for each and every soldier in the same rank. The very concept of rank and file was a the core of close order battle until the machine gun, barbed wire, and shell fire shredded the ordered and close starting in the Crimean War and coming to full term in WW 1/

Fig. 06

Von Steuben went on to command the Southern Campaign that led to Yorktown, and in the battles of Cowpens and Guilford Courthouse showed the combat effectiveness he instilled in the Continental Army

Dress Right, Cover Down, or Die

Changing from Carry to Fight in Shield Wall

Fig. 07
The absolute necessity of uniformity of individual training with the collective was that the cohesion of the front ranks required that everyone knew and did exactly as expected. If one shield gave way, and not replaced, the chances of a tipping point into retreat was not far behind. The Battle of Camden in 1780 (link below) is a good illustration of such panic) The Anglo‐Saxon Army under Harold Godwinson held Senlac Hill for 12 hours, and was defeated only because one part of the shield wall broke ranks to pursue Normans they thought were fleeing.

Fig. 08

Once guns were introduced, the original intent for uniformity to keep the shields on line became keeping   those   in   the   line   from   being   shot   or   bayonetted   by   others   lagging   behind.

Fig. 09
What is called “dismounted drill” in the Services today is what remains of battle drill. This was considerably more complicated before WW 2 than it is today.


Fig. 10

Close order fighting had the advantage of cohesion due to Mirror Neurons which cause an animal and humans to copy or emulate the behaviors of the group. This extends to mimicking the speech patterns of the crowd you are with. Leveraging this factor is essential in accustoming the soldier to the collective patters in operations of the unit. Working on any team effort benefits any other. The olfactory (smell) of the group bypasses all other sensory inputs and can reinforce or demolish the desired behavioral

The downside of “mirror neurons” when added with the smell of fear cause panic. When I was a Sergeant in the Infantry, my Company Commander had a “panic drill”. He would have the First Sergeant attack the company, which triggered one soldier to toss his rifle and run yelling. Another soldier suddenly leaped to his feet and ran. As did the rest of the company like popcorn in the wind.

The panicked one with the rifle was in on it, the second was told to do what the first did. I have used this drill with the same results several times in my career.  This “panic drill” accustomed the soldier to that eventuality and was taught how to deal with it, one of which was not to run after the first one.

The Continentals with Mel Gibson in the Patriot shows in two battles the difference in following of the wrong paradigm with one that won.  The Battle of Camden 1780 shows the results of a well trained and drilled British Army defeating the unready American Army that had a large number of militia units not trained in face to face close order battle. 

The Battle of Cowpens 1781 used the expectation that the militia would flee to ensnare the British into a trap placed on the reverse slope of the Militia "fled" to. 


The importance of tight formations and precise drill are still with us in formal parades. In older times before Flanders and Passchendaele, what we see on a parade ground was in fact, battle drill. Having marched in the University of California ROTC Drill Team and commanded the UCLA ROTC drill time, I have a keen appreciation of the time and effort it takes to drill even a dozen, let alone several thousand. The North Korea spiffy drills must divert an inordinate amount of calories from a starving nation, just to look good on parade.
Fort Leonard Wood, Engineer Training Brigade

Parade Grounds are for Parades, not drills anymore, but they are still spiffy. Once upon a time a century ago, how a unit drilled on the parade ground was a reflection of how good their battle drill was. Not anymore. It is a good sign to watch the North Korean and Chinese marching drills as energy taken away from combat training:
Chinese military precision drill, precision personified.
The “Hell March” series has the same soundtrack but highlight the precision of marching carried over from the battle necessities prior to WW 1. Stirring as they are, they add about zip to combat formations. The principle influences affecting many armies today come from the British model or the German model “goose step”.
British Army:
The slow marching step is for precise alignment in close order combat
Indian Army Hell March (British style)
The German Goose step was passed on by military advisors exported by Imperial, Republican and Nazi German armies. This is particularly true of South America
Chilean Army Parade (Goose Step)

Then there is the Italian Bersaglieri:


Since Libya was an Italian colony, the running tradition of a double time (running step) may have been passed by way of Gadhafi’s support to modern terrorists.

Precision drill is good for instilling discipline, coordination with others, and good physical exercise. It has some not so good side effects: It has little to do with combat skills, individual or collective. It instills an obsession with appearance and neatness, and it absorbs huge amounts of time. Natural selection over the thousands of years that close order battle was effective also naturally selected the neat freak (anal retentive).
Nevertheless, the retention of the marching styles of old is visible evidence of a state of discipline as tradition reflects hard training standards of old. Combat veterans march better than those with no combat experience, the verse, however doesn't always work.

Fig. 14

World War I, the Paradigm Shifts from Close Order to Open Order Battle
Trench Warfare

Passchendaele, the defensive paradigm:

 And the futility of frontal infantry attacks at the Battle of the Somme

World War I started out with formations still trained to fight in close order. The butchery that came from the trench, barbed wire, grazing machine gun fire, and plunging high explosive artillery rounds, utterly wiped out armies on all sides. The telegraph allowed the generals the illusion of control over forces miles away, and away from the gore. Since the default way of war was more, and more men in columns of units on line. One following the one before. This was why the battles of Antietam, Spotsylvania, and the Wilderness bled America dry. One General Emory Upton tried to change to a more flexible way of fighting with success when he was in charge. Upton later wrote on the subject of improving the odds in the battles to come. Then he committed suicide

Despite the slaughter, the fascination with close order combat lingers on.  The Soviet system of warfare retained the practice of sending waves of successive lines of units into battle.  These have been called "Second Echelon" forces which are not true reserve forces.  Most other forces outside US Transformation retain a reserve of a third or more of forward forces. 

The problem that plagues modern military forces is that close order prettiness is deeply ingrained in the top down neatness at a time when the eclectic and effective wins. The neat (anal retentive) will not disappear,  and cannot be expected to know that that battle is messy. The demand for order in the chaos of that is normal ironically requires the skills and obsession of the Anal Retentive to ensure that the parts fit close enough, supplies and support are where they need to be, and that attention to things like lost nails for horse shoes are not.

Open Order Battle:

WW 2 - The Eastern Front

Then there is my war, Vietnam with the 1st Air Cavalry Division 68-69

Thunder Road, Vietnam 68-69

Entering War Zone C with the 2/2 Mechanized Infantry, 1st Inf Div

F100 Air Strike on VC forces causing us some problems.

101st Airborne Reinforcements in War Zone C

Modern, as in as of now, is messy, confusing, and you only know what is going on a stones’ throw away.

Fig. 15

Fig, 16

The neat and orderly dispersion of these ISIS troops reflects their Iraqi Republican Guard military cadre

Fig. 17

Mind Shafting

Fig 17A

Hunters vs Farmers
The close order combat formations came largely from those civilizations based on agriculture, particularly those whose survival depended upon irrigation systems requiring considerable organization talent and neatness. The additional advantage of the Farmer Soldier is that the farms produced more calories per acre than did hunting grounds.
By way of contrast the Warrior who brought the hunter sets of skills in which neatness is counterproductive. The conflict between Hunter and Farmer is a constant dissembler of cohesive action. Hunters ramble in a geometrically precise culture, they don’t fit on farms for long.

Fig. 18

Recent work on the origins of ADHD have included the concept of a conflict between hunter and farmer ways of thinking. 
Some in India hold that the hunter’s mind is an older mind, that the farmer’s mind became the expected default. The hunter must be ever on the alert for food and to avoid being food, which when emerges energizes an intense focus and drive on the object of catching the food or evading the threat. This constant shifting of attention in a world where sticking to the task at hand without distraction, has outlawed the hunter as a sick person in need of imprisonment, execution or medication.
Since the Hunter and the Farmer have such different agendas, they do not mix well or at all. The US Army rejects those with ADHD for that reason despite their superiority in open and mobile battle. The military profession attracts, promotes and retains the Anal Retentive which is why obsolescence in appearance is so prevalent

                   Dr Sigmund Freud vs the Reich

Fig 19

In addition to sorting out farmers and hunters, Dr Freud devised a typology for individual psychology that is eminently suited to job interviews, staff meetings, and any level of leadership.  It is simple and easy to used.  It also applies to enemy leadership and proclivities.  

Dr Sigmund Freud devised a simple system that helps identify several major personality types whose manner of doing things is readily predictable, given  few clues.  There is the Oral Blabber Mouth like myself). The Anal Asshole (both retentive and explosive) whose obsession with order and neatness (one cleans up messes, the other makes them). And and the Phallic Prick who trusts no one and is dangerous to trust. 

 The default dominant type in banks, most bureaucracies,  and military forces is the Anal Retentive.  They go through their careers cleaning up messes, and if a mess is not there, they will find one.  The mess clearance factor is like the Farmer's obsession with avoiding mistakes,  The clue is the overly neat desk.  And thus into the Valley of Death rode the 600 of the British Light Cavalry neat as a pin, and arrayed in rows of targets on a battlefield ringed by guns.

Charge of the Light Brigage

Fig. 20
The book by Dr. Norman Dixon On the Psychology of Military Incompetence”, Dr. Norman’s thesis is that in Britain the potty training in British Public Schools create the Anal Retentive whose behavior while otherwise stellar, cannot make a decision in muddy waters, or who sticks to the wrong one.  Thus the Farmer Anal Retentive can be counted on to freeze under the pressure in the fact of 9-11 where the advance intelligence did not have the flight numbers, which precluded proactive measure.  

The flip side of the Anal is the Anal Expletive, I prefer Anal Explosive who, unlike their obsessively neat cousins, they look for clean things to crap on.  We call them inspectors, professors,  and investigative reporters.  The incestuous interface betwixt the two cousins can consume an entire budget without production or profit. 


The US Army rejects those with ADD due to the necessity to scan constantly and not get fixated on any one thing.  This behavior is necessary in a hunters world to get the game and not be one.  The farmer has to maintain a steady focus on the task at hand and not be distracted.  Historically, those with hunter's minds have been assigned tasks such as reconnaissance and security missions as well as light cavalry where things happen in an instant. 

Consequently in the process of raising or fixing an army it is important to know that both, even in the extreme are equally valuable to combat effectiveness. Since the Hunter and the Farmer have such different agendas, they do not mix well or at all. 
I commanded an MI Battalion in the Army Reserves that included Electronic Warfare (Radio Intercept and finding) and Military Intelligence elements (order of battle, interrogation, counter intelligence, and imagery interpretation). MI differs from the default other soldiery in that the soldiery can be trained like a dog, or horse, while leading MI soldiers is like herding cats. It therefore is important for the Commander to provide the cats with a challenge and good “food”.

Fig. 21

As such the commander of any given unit must be able to spot the cats from dogs, hunters from warriors, and the Oral, Anal, and Phallic personalities in the Unit. , Each has strengths and weaknesses different from others, so getting the strengths of one to over the weaknesses of the others, is both management and leadership.  You don’t put a farmer in a hunter’s war. Absent clear order and in a chaotic circumstance, they are either unable to make a decision or stick to a doomed course of action as did McClellan at Antietam..  

Consider the states of mind of the Japanese admirals at Midway:  Admiral Nagumo dithers on the report of an American carrier forcing the decision of which of two divergent objectives be met: Midway or the Carrier.

Japanese fighter cover had been engaged in the destruction of Torpedo Squadron 8, and were out of position at the moment the US diver bombers arrive on station. 

And the initiative taken by Admiral Yamaguchi of the Hyru's counter attack with what was left.

And then there was the Charge of the Light Brigade when the blithering idiots changed blinding into the Valley of Death.   

Brain Waves and Body Language

Some recent work on the neurologic effect on behavior can be applied significantly upon why proven training and fighting methodologies worked. Even for animals, without MOSQ.
Survival in nature is closely tied to how close the one can read the signals of the rest, this is sometimes called teamwork, or conformity, or mob psychology. Or all of them. Humans naturally have a more complex neurological need for company, as do many animals. Isolation is devastating.  Many facial expressions and body language differ between cultures or even cliques in school.

Fig. 22
Hence the uniform and the School of the Soldier (salutes, marching, posture, war fighting face, etc.).
Facial expressions, tone of voice and body language are key to communication within or between groups. Some say over 90% of communication is nonverbal. This is at the core of Coach Carter’s segregation on the basis of defense/offensive teams while effecting inter‐racial cohesion. Carter also trained his team as a team, unlike some who like rotating building blocks.

Mirror Neurons

Fig. 23
The mechanism that enhances cohesion is from what are called “mirror neurons” which are found throughout the nervous system.  This applies to any group effort, even though the specific tasks of the individuals differ from each other, the mind takes in how the rest worked. Later, these deep seated memories activate when the individual several years later has a different job (like a Bn CO) knows what to do.

Child's Play as Battle Drill

Fig. 24
Children play in order to learn the basic survival skills of their own species and group. Play is in effect battle drill including actions upon meeting the enemy. That includes climbing into trees or diving into holes to get away from the predator. Combat skills are played with the inborn caveat that the claws and teeth to not tear the other.     


In addition, the process of leading and fighting goes to the workings of the Autonomic Nervous System (ANS) which affects the body with a chemical juggling act. The ANS is divided into the Sympathetic Nervous System and the Parasympathetic System. As it pertains to combat, the default reaction of fight, flight or freeze is the exact opposite of what is needed. The default is Parasympathetic, which must be countered by the Sympathetic System.

Fig. 25
The default is to narrow the field of view, draw the blood away from the extremities, and prepare to repair damage with cholesterol. The methods of calming the mind include drill until the motion is automatic and requires no conscious thought. Thinking out loud in the head interferes with the relaxation process and the effective use of trained responses. The key is to quiet the brain and let the body to fight. The key is deep breathing. Belly breathing, not with the upper chest.
Zazen breathing to invoke the Relaxation Response

Fig. 26

For those in leadership positions, the clarity of the relaxed mind is far more efficient that one consumed with doubts and fear. Thus the image of the true warrior is both serene and deadly. Let the body do the fighting.  Some sing as they go to battle as in Zulu.

Some simply remain calm, cool and collected, as in the gun vs knife duel in Magnificent Seven:

Or in "Zatoichi" 

In this duel, one sees the games people play which are as deadly as can be.  

Zatoichi, the Blind Swordsman

Fig. 27


Transactional Analysis (TA)

A fire fight is a transaction betwixt two or more.  So are conversations and other transactions. The field of Psychology called Transactional Analysis (TA) is the study of the psychology behind those transactions.  TA is best used in “normal psychology” applied to normal people, and for those without advanced degrees or time for the quagmire of Clinical Psychology of "abnormal psychology".  As mad as war is, it occurs normally like clockwork.  And combat is a lot of transactions of all sorts and sizes.  

Only one in six of everybody is free of dents and we call them Saintly. The one sixth on the other end of the scale cause 80% of all the problems. That leaves two thirds in the middle. That equates to two Standard Deviations, one above and one below the mean. That’s the normal. However you measure it, inches, IQ, or test scores. 
Some people don’t grow up, save to fake it. They often display behaviors more appropriate to a child. The inconsistency between adult reason, parental injunction, and childlike behavior in a given behavior can be sensed by those looking for it. This provides a sight picture of strengths and weaknesses.

Parent, Adult, Child (PAC)
In trying to psyche out an opponent or defuse a problem in the ranks the TA structure of Parent (P), Adult (A) and Child (C) or PAC becomes useful in determining where they are “coming from”. And where they want to go:
The gutted gunfighter was acting out of his Child Ego state, acting out a child's version of what a heroic fighter should be.  One could say that he was stuck in his childhood.

fig 27a
“Are you OK?”  TA clip on the differences.   Yawn.

Fig. 28

Effective communication leverages all three, leaving one out weakens the message. In another lifetime, I was a PSYOP officer charged with recruiting for my own unit, the 5th PSYOP Group (Strategic), Army Reserve in DC. I recruited a team of lopsided and creative people who could analyze a target audience, determine the motivating factors (PAC), develop the message and media, and put it into effect. This included TV and Radio spots, displays at local malls using a PSYOP truck (loudspeakers, printers, and movie and TV screens) and follow up on the feedback.
We filled our own unit in short order, then were asked to recruit for the 2290th USAR General Hospital in Rockville, MD. My analysis showed that the RULE (P) that worked was nurture and protection, the Child (C) reacted to the appeal of being a rescuer, and the ADULT facts was the telephone number of the 2290th. The video we produced later won the Keith L Ware Army wide award for television production.
The Theme of the operation was “From Birth to the Battlefield, the Fight for Life goes on”.
Further analysis of TA for military purposes goes to a second and third order of refinement. The Parent Ego state has two basic sides reflecting the Mother/Father dichotomy, that of Nurture and that of Protect. The impact of culture on the Parent produces multi‐generation sets of RULEs, in F4F this is the FATE rule book. This includes the dark side of the Child being a victim lashing out as a villain which carries across generations and nations.

Fig. 29

The Child Ego State is the most complex as it is where the fun and adventure of life is. Or as a bummer. The Child “plays” at being an Adult or a Parent. And it is in play, that the young learn the Rules. It is the fun and joy part that makes life worth living for, or dying for.
The Dark Side of TA occurs when the Young are abused verbally and/or physically, and adapts to a dysfunctional world as a Villain (Murderous, Manipulative, Mad; Vicious, Vindictive, Vain)

Fig 30
Angela Lansbery as Mother: 

Understanding drama is that in drama, no one is using the Adult, that of dealing with facts. It’s the Buzz of Parental (Mother‐Father; Nurture‐Protect) ego states that rule the roost, and all below. I have called it “Buzziology”
Drivers, Rackets, and Scripts are the sum of games that are played over a predictable course, and to a predictable end.  This is useful to the G2. 

Fig. 31

Additional work by TA specialists have developed a hierarchy of role switching starting with Games and going to Rackets and Life Scripts. A great deal of leadership is the identification of what games and rackets are being played. The Dark Side (Villainous) often is carried on indefinitely from God only knows when ‘til now.

Fig 32

                                 HABITS & CULTURES   

If one was to hunt deer or ducks, one would find out the habits of the aforesaid deer or ducks. Where they eat, where they sleep, and … move about. These habits that are intended to raise the odds of survival as in getting laid and paid. They may be individual or collective, and when collective they constitute the “survival culture” of the group. Thus the group (most likely to be a primary group – those that hang around or work together). This is referred to in my other posts as “F4F”.

The Family is the most common form of Primary Group

F4F has four levels: Biological (Food and Family), Psychological (Roles), Sociological (Rules) and Technological (Tools). F4F is neither grid nor check list, it is more like a key board tied to an enigma. Hit any key and follow the tangle until a picture tied to survival is clear. All behavior related to survival has the greatest impact on performance, including suicide.

Fig. 33
Actually, the roles that “They” play are the offense while those of “Y’all” are defensive. Switching from Blue to Red describes daily interface. Each time a Role is switch vis a vis someone else’s Role, there is a “Pay Off” or Reward closely related to the Gotcha Game. The central mechanism is the rotation of the central Drama of Victim, Rescuer or Prosecutor. Sometimes all Six Roles can be played by a single party. We call that Propaganda, Public Relations, and/or Politics.
Seat of all evil

Fig 34

Stamp collecting is central to the understanding of supportive, seductive, and/or seditious behavior of groups and individuals. Nazi propaganda is the purest of examples of a full use of all six roles the hero plays plus the six attributed to the bad guys. Central to the complete package is the switch of the Victim to that of Prosecutor because of said villainy.

When reviewing ISIS terrorism one must determine what kind of stamps they are collecting, and to what part of the sick child is being stroked.  In this case, the"Jew" is portrayed in the Villain (Murderous, Manipulative, and Mad) in an assault on the Rules in protecting and nurturing the family.  

Fig. 35

Rules for the use of the Role switches and Role supporting include two broad sets, that of Social Status and that relative to the Physical World.
These Rules can be remembered not by any new acronym, but by one’s own body language in which the lineage and connections of the Roles as in a keyboard, to play out the story line. This is the cartoon version:

Fig 36
And this is the Family version:

Fig 37

In the assessment of your people and any your will deal with as friends or enemies can be analyzed to determine the vulnerabilities and strengths of each.
The current use of Suicide Bombers can be explained using F4F. The key question is “just how does a Suicide Bomber get Laid and Paid, or Dinner and a Date”?
The Fate (Source of Authority) comes from a dogma that places the bomber on a mission to rescue Islam (Women and Children) from Villainy by the “Crusaders” by prosecuting them with death, manipulation and faith (mad). For this the Suicide bomber is rewarded by a number of virgins in Heaven, and the family is rewarded by those in charge.  And the family gains Face and Fame for having sacrificed for the cause. We call them Blue Star Mothers.
This is called “Rewards and Punishments” in your basic behavioral modification algorithm (fines, spanking, candy or bonuses). In addition to the analyses of Farmer‐Warrior, and of Freudian taxonomy (blabbermouth, asshole, prick) their interplay in Game Playing in Drama can be doped out to identify those in the way or the way ahead.

Fig. 38

Martyrdom is the reward for the Hero, and a curse on the Villain(s).  Killing the enemy often makes them stronger. Thus Martyrdom is a White Stamp for purity and essence of vital bodily fluids.

Fig. 39

The Law of the Inverse Attribution Reflex (LIAR)

As a vital analytical aid to identify the most destructive of persons is the Law of the Inverse Attribution Reflex (LIAR). Game Playing can be done consciously, Inverse Attribution is from the edge of the sub‐conscious in charge of Covering One’s Ass which in reality, blows the cover story. The Braggart brags of his weakest virtues, and Blames others with his worst vice.
This is of great value during an election by the amount of passion exerted by a candidate’s platform expressed as what he/she is for (actually against) and what he/she is against (actually for). This dichotomy is strongest when most emotional.  The True Liar lies to himself more than others.
The importance of LIAR in intelligence is that an enemy (or friend) reveals their own weakness by what they brag about, and their worst by what they blame you for. Works four times out of five. It also can be used in internal management in determining the disruptive behaviors and complaints from within.

Fig. 40

Tribal Structure 

Competing Groups (Formal and Informal)
1.        Warriors – War Chief – Firepower
2.        Priests – Chief Priest – Information
3.       Good Old Boys – Council of Elders - Permission
4.       Money Makers – Guilds, corporations, unions
5.       The Rest – Don’t care or don’t matter


Fig. 41
Agents of change or not (Mess with the above)
1.       General Contractors – the power to alter the earth
2.       Scribes – the power to define and regulate the world
3.       Bare & Bar - the power to grease the squeaking wheel.
4.       Court Jester – Ass kisser. 
5.       Secretary – the power to control access.
6.       Hen House – Where the power really resides (parallel dimension)
7.       Trickster, Charlatan, Consultant - tailors the emperor’s new clothes.

Fig 42
The Force (The medium)
1.       Blood – DNA - His or Theirs.
2.       Money – Convertible blood or power.
3.       Power – The offer that cannot be refused.
4.       Untouchable, Invincible, Invisible.
Internal Structure (Org and Flow Charts)

1.       Palace Court –  Authority
2.       Markets & Ports - Commerce
3.       City Walls - Defense
4.       Estates - Ostentation
5.       Temples – Heaven or Hell
6.       Mines and Fields – Raw Materials
7.       Arts & Crafts – Production of Wealth

Fig 43

Those above are capable of infinite combination and alteration.  

The Hunter and Farmer study the Tribal Structure and the interplay between its Centers of Gravity to exploit or protect the bottom card(s) in the Village house of cards.

Fig 44


Fourth Battle of Kawanakajima, 1561

Fig 45

Being an old soldier with mishaps, adventures, reverses and an occasional miracle, I’ll stick with what worked for me in military, political, economic, and every once in a while personally. That’s what I got from the US Army:

The Principles of leadership

Fig 46
Fury, Leadership at its best.

Fig. 47

The Principles of War

Fig 48

Leadership Traits

Fig 49
On the short list, Management is the allocation of resources through processes to outputs/results. Leadership occurs when the troops own the process and proud of the results. Sometimes one must kick ass and hope not to have to kiss ass to get what you need.
  Fig 50

Battle of Tsushima

Fig 51
The Battle of Pork Chop Hill, Korea


*This is based on the combat proven “METT” (Mission, Enemy, Terrain, Troops available) Time and Civilian considerations –TC) have been added, which unfortunately is at root of poor performance in the current unpleasantness. METT‐TH gives a better high with Technology and Habits (TH)
TERRAIN (plus Weather and Time)
In short, it is impossible to change an acronym except in order to clutter the mind and get some REMF an MSM. Such was the case with Terrain Analysis which had the acronym COCOA which is easier to pronounce than the new but has the exact same characters as does OCOKA* except that the word Critical Terrain was changed to Key Terrain with no substantial difference.

Terrain analysis can get quite involved, I was a “squint” (Imagery Interpreter –II) in a previous life and terrain analysis was one of the major skill sets we had to get good at. Absent imagery, a pair of hands does well to analyze and discuss the tactical aspects of the ground you are on.

Fig 52

Everyone on the battlefield or close to one, should be constantly analyzing the terrain in view, with the possible courses of action that will demand actions and orders. Being ready for everything must be done at the subconscious or habitual levels. Otherwise the brain will have to undergo a refit.
Terrain affects who can see or shoot at or not, how well the terrain affects movement. Movement is the primary factor in deciding what can be done where, otherwise the terrain is scenery. There are five handy terrain features using the hand as a tool: ridges, valleys, passes, hills and holes. The holes are usually filled with water, which either sits still (lakes) or moves like a river.
The water that moves, like rivers, move downhill until evaporated, absorbed or reach the oceans. So long as it moves, it provides the equivalent structure we call forks (passes), fingers, rivers, and deltas which in turn look like a splayed out hand.

Fig 53
One can move with the grain (rivers or rivers) with greater ease than cross corridor or fording. Consequently the control of movement goes to who controls forks and passes. This however is inherently low ground, so the terrain that provides observation and fields of fire. That means high ground (most of the time) which goes to the slogan “TAKE THE HIGH GROUND”
Ridges and Rivers that run perpendicular to where YOU and/or THEY wish to move, can act as OBSTACLES as well as COVER and CONCEALMENT. National boundaries often run along rivers and/or ridges. In the case of navigable rivers and the associated drainage patterns define the life of nations, such as the US:
The shape of the drainage patters is normally shown on most maps. It’s knowing what pattern produces what ridges are where. The conjunction of rivers and ridges produces passes and fords where history likes to fight battles, that over who gets to move where.

Red Cliff, a John Woo film covering the full range of a Full Spectrum, Whole of Government war strategy, the trailer:


Fig 54
The finest example of maneuver is in the Battle of Chancellorsville between Confederate Generals Lee and Jackson's Army of Northern Virginia  in a battle to defend a river line against Union General Hooker's Army of the Potomac.  

Illustrated narrative of this remarkable example of operating in interior lines against a vastly superior force. For professionals only.

The Geometry of the Geography

Fig 55
The drainage patterns of rivers and their associated ridges define the easiest way to move goods, supplies, troops and/or people. We call these Lines of Communication. LOC for short. The lowest gradient (the least steep) gets the movement. Sharp variations of gradient produce bypasses and switchbacks.

Fig 56

Animals on the move follow these rules, and it is the trails of goats, cattle, deer and the antelope that humans have followed, then upgraded by moving the earth that’s in the way. Hiking, biking, and camping trails usually follow pre‐existing animal trails, because the way follows the least steep, and around obstacles. These are natures’ Lines of Communication.

Fig 57

The scale of the trail doesn’t matter whether in range of grenade or incoming rocket. The slopes are relevant to the distance observed. That which are ridges on large scale maps dissolve into other ridges, larger and smaller... Matching the trajectory and range of your weapons to the slope and   shape of the ground in range, is the fine are of staying alive. Consequently the professional student of war and economics studies the usages of the past.


The Cookie Jars and Lines of Communication

Collecting Cookie Jars and the routes between is at the core of the operational art of war.  (getting there).  Aerial interdiction campaigns are directed at the routes, forks, gaps, and gathering places of the enemy's logistical jugular arteries.  

The Cookie Jar is that which retention or control of is seriously important. It may be something of value itself such as a seat of government, manufacturing, and supplies. It may be terrain that controls movement on roads or rivers by sitting on it or looking down on it (Lines of Communication). Where the mode of transportation changes such as airfields, ports, and yards is a choke point. They are located at passes, harbors, forks, and places where goods must change mode of transportation

Harper's Ferry

Fig 58 Harper's Ferry

The High Ground

Cookie jars and the lines of communication (LOC) between them are controlled by whomever controls the high ground (observation, field of fire, etc.).  The Railroad and paved roads changed the river and valley default use for movement of troops and supplies to a paradigm where the movement now included the High Ground as avenues of approach and logistics (Gas, Ammo, Spare Arrows, and Hard Tack)

From a view from the top, the logistical structure of a force looks like a tree which has a trunk with both roots and branches following the path of least resistance. A river system has the same look as in drainage and delta patterns at the sea.      Sometimes getting at the root of things is often done from top down, when the trunk is the heart of the matter.  This is the aim of the present air campaign against ISIS, as it was against the German rail system and fuel production in WW 2, the campaign against the Ho Chi Minh Trail, and the Union Blockades and River operations in the Civil War.

Fig 59 Cutting the VC LOC along the Saigon from Cambodia.
In Vietnam, the default Field Artillery Ammunition Supply Rate (ASR) was ten tons of ammo per gun per day. At that time that meant one truck on the road per gun per day. And, the ASR was adjusted to support the weight of the battle. Artillery Ammunition was two thirds of the operating costs of an Army Division in Vietnam. The bulk of the remainder was fuel. The 1st Air Cavalry Division used ten tons of aviation spare parts per day.

Fig 60
QL 13 (Saigon‐Phnom Penh) was the main supply route for the 1st Infantry Division, and later the 1st Cavalry. Fire bases were established with overlapping range fans one of to protect the “Whiplash” convoys of gas, ammo, and supplies.
That part of an army (or fleet) which from where the supplies come from is called the Base of Operations, and the routes of both supply and maneuver are called Lines of Communication. This basic language of the military art and science is the product of Jomini Antoine‐Henri Jomini whose work on maneuver was the bible for Civil War general on both sides, which maneuvers remain classic.

(IMHO‐RC only) Jomini’s Art of War is that which be put to memory as the first of its kind that has lasting impact to this day.
Jomini, Clausewitz & US Doctrine for the theoretic differences, toon wise

The preferred object of maneuver is cut the lines of communication and the supply bases behind an enemy, the further back the better. The panic potential is greater the farther back. US and ISIS operations in Iraq produced panics wherein the forward forces over ran the rear.
This is what happened in Korea when the Chinese entered the war, in Virginia after Bull Run, in Italy after Cannae. In 1940 Fall Gelb (Plan Yellow) was the OPLAN where Guderian and Rommel drove the British, Belgians, French and Dutch to Dunkirk and forced the evacuation of survivors to England.
Fall Gelb


Fig 61
Faced with a staggering defeat, Winston Churchill showed a superb mastery of levering the full array of Feed and Breed, Psychological Roles, Sociological Rules and whatever tools he had. The best being the Royal Navy and the RAF. Defiance done with the certainty of Victory;

FDR, with the fires in Pearl still smoking:


Fig 62
The “T” for technology can be parked anywhere in METT‐TC but I like to take the place T for Time under Terrain. Of all the attributes that affect the choices of courses of action, technology has taken the lead as the main differential that changes the Tactical Milieu.
Technology is defined herein as whatever extension of the capabilities of the being (human or otherwise). 

The Means is what parts of the body are on the giving and receiving end with regard to what Modes. The Duel is one on one for speed, accuracy and range.  The Defend is what happens if that doesn't work, the Attack to deal with the Defense and the Counter Attack to deal with the Attack.  Simple version is grouped by Stimulus and Response.

The tactical imperatives selected may only work for an instance, a blink of the eye, or may form the basis of an entire tactical system, like chain link or plate armor against ever increasing ability to hit and penetrate.  Spaced "Chobham" armor on modern tanks is the "Absorb:" option while bar armor is the "Intercept" option. With the Iron Dome an Intercept, Catch, and Penetrate option against mortar rounds and rockets.

Fig 63

Battle of Rourke’s Drift:

The spear and the shield, a popular combo on battlefields since before the Battle of Tamalpais.

Fig 64
And the air battles of WW 2, partly organized chaos.

To blind the enemy’s eyes, one reaches and hits the platform or hides, conceals from being observed. Or any combination above. The technological changes between 1914 and 1919 created a vastly different array of ways and means of using the stimuli and response, based on the range, speed, and power of the weaponry of the day.
The same choices existed in older times except for the physical dimensions involved. The cavalry of olden times could survive if it stayed out of range of competing forces, by being faster, or better armed and armored. The infantry would survive if it could harden up (shield war) dig in, and/or spread out.
Where Crosses of Iron Grow. WW 2 film about the Eastern Front:

Agile and light doesn’t always work. It depends upon what the other guy’s got.

Fig 65
Richard Bong, 40 kills in a P‐38

The P‐38 was faster than but less maneuverable than Japanese Zeros. The tactic used to combat the more maneuverable Zero was to dive through and away to preclude the Zero’s tighter turning radius and rate of climb. Bong’s specialty was a deflection shot from an angle. Those who are into computer war games know more than I concerning the intricacies of air to air combat.
Winged Hussars:

Poland’s Winged Hussars against Swedish infantry with guns. Excellent portrayal of the wall and the charge, spear and the shield (Patton). The present day guidon for company sized units is the last vestige of the Pike which replaced the Spear shortly after the Crusades. Pike and Shot ruled until the bayonet was added to the musket.

The tactical milieu is what the balance of imperatives work out to be in a given instance or a short period of time. While Roman legions retained their basic structure and fighting styles for centuries from Republic to Empire, the changes come too fast to predict with any degree of certainty. What is certain is that it will change, often unexpectedly and suddenly.
That makes the skill sets of those involved from Grunt to General to Staff and Hill that change is the only certainty, and certainly requires a system to rapidly adapt from the battlefield to the manufacturer and back. A key decision that often determines the outcome of a war is the decision to switch from producing small numbers to adapt, or freeze design to produce in large numbers.  Discussions concerning Russian and Chinese Naval developments and deployments go to the selection of which tactical imperatives will support which tactical, operational and strategic choice they make.

Winston Churchill in the Battle of Omdurman of the last full cavalry charge of the British Army:
And do watch the subsequent clips from the film "The Lighthorsemen" where mounted infantry charged under Turkish gunfire to take Beersheba.

The shock effect of horse cavalry was also sensitive to the alignment of the attacking forces as it hit the enemy.  The faster the charge, the more scattered the charge would be.  Some cavalry forces as in the Crusader Era often walked their horses so that all the spear points would hit the enemy line at once.  Cromwell's cavalry in the New Model Army charged stirrup to stirrup.  

Horse cavalry was used successfully in the thirties in China, Spain, Poland and many other wars. The mass produced truck by the US skipped around the effort to raise and train horses. The Soviets and the Germans were still heavily dependent on horses for transport and combat. The horse, however, still retains certain advantages over wheeled or tracked vehicles as in woods.


Time belongs under Terrain which also includes weather (WX), light data, and terrain. As in when does the sun come up, and when does it get dark.
Time as one of the Rules is not only the amount but what sense of time do the players have. New Yorkers talk fast, go fast, and get nowhere, while Texans take their time, deal behind closed doors, and get things done. In Kenya the time of the meeting or dinner give is the time you leave home. Time in some parts is the same day repeating, not sequential but rotational.
Thus when working with allies, like from New York to Houston, the assigned time of finishing tasks depends upon when it gets done. Soon. Very soon. Give or take.
About an hour before BMNT (Beginning Morning Nautical Time the time when a man can be seen in at 100 meters) is everyone’s favorite time of attack. Raids about BMNT (Beginning…) gives the cover of night to exit the area.

The Principle of the Objective

The supreme art of war is winning without fighting or so said Sun Tsu.  This goes to picking the right objective that alters the enemy's will to resist what you want them to do.  Battle is normally focused on smashing something , grabbing something and/or bragging about it to someone.   That someone or something should have a bearing on the ability and/or willingness to oppose you will.   This includes both the carrot and the stick.  This includes undermining, overriding and manipulating the enemy to do something stupid.  

This is what happened when Doolittle raided Tokyo.  The effects were marginal at best, except that it goaded the Japanese to attack Midway, the naval turning point of the war.    Destroying the US fleet doomed Japan the moment the first bomb hit Pearl Harbor. 

The concept of bombing the enemy until they drive out their "evil" regime skips over the part where the locals will take the evil they know from the hell from the sky.  Fire bombing did not deter Hitler, but it motivated Hirohito to stage a palace coup.     Precision strikes on "terrorist" networks and nodes miss the point where the terrorist relies on redundant nodes and networks that shift as the winds of war.   

Fig 66

If it was only a matter of smash, grab and/or brag, stick to organizes sports or computer games, as the human factor is more complex. The Morris and Janowitz study of Cohesion and Disintegration of the Wehrmacht in Normandy found that as long as the primary group was intact, no amount of inducement would break their willingness to fight.  Once that happened, all that was needed was the place, time and manner of surrender on an official looking document.

Groups come in two flavors: Primary and Secondary. The family is the typical primary groups where relations (husband, wife, child) are ends unto themselves.  As a familiar group increases, distinctions such as status become means to ends.  

As Veterans from operations in Afghanistan know brothers fight brothers, families fight families, villages, clans and tribe against each other, but domestic squabbles are the most dangerous for outsiders to mess with. Ask you local police.  Father beats wife, cop beats father, wife brains cop with frying pan.

Planning goes to three levels: Tactical, Operational, and Strategic. Current US doctrine holds that these equate to levels of command. I find that all three are present at any level.

The Strategic Bombing Campaign on Germany in WW 2 was expected to destroy enough of Germany’s war making potential would break Hitler’s Triumphant Will. He shot himself as the Soviet Army pillaged, plundered and raped Berlin. The original phases of the late operations in Iraq started out with the same winning war fighting system but with the erroneous conclusion that taking the capitol of a nation was like capture the flag. The bloody shirt of ISIS hides the cohesion with which they fight, and distracts its enemies with their focus on the blood.
The available selection of what array of tactical imperatives will do, depends upon what the objectives, if any, are of the war and of the battle. Likewise the tactical imperatives define what objectives can be attained.   The German Navy in WW 1 had no effect on the war until the crews revolted and brought communism to Germany. The German Navy in WW 2 could never have beaten the Royal Navy on the surface, but the U‐Boats could have rendered the Royal Navy surface fleet irrelevant by cutting the life lines from the US to the UK. Admiral Raeder only had two dozen operational U‐Boats available for operations against the UK. Not enough ships? Odd.
Knowing how to end it more often than not is based also on accident, whim, and occasionally stubborn determination.

Fig 67
Japanese resistance on Okinawa and Iwo Jima made the A‐bomb necessary. This was the excuse for the Emperor of Japan to stage a coup, and broadcast his unthinkable message that ended the war.

Centers of Gravity (COG)

Centers of Gravity are supposed to be that which war is waged.  Clausewitz changes his concept of one COG to several by the end of his book.  Part of the problem is that operating "around" a COG which only the good guys know, assumes that the enemy does not know his own COG, and that his enemy (good guys) do.  

COGs shift as does the shifting tactical imperatives and cohesion of the faithful and loyal. As such, COG's should include biological, psychological, sociological as well as technological imperatives concerning the enemy as well as friends and neighbors. 

This may include the right mix of tactical imperatives, the selection of the right geometry, right scheme of maneuver, right selection of courses of action in terms of capabilities and vulnerabilities.  That which is right may either fragment or fuse the enemy in the time and place for the offer that cannot be refused.  Deception is the basis of all war says Sun Tzu, but he wasn't talking about the self deception.   It all matters to all the parties is what comes after:

What Comes After

The carrot often works better than the stick. The trick is using a carrot that can’t be stuck in your rear. Something that allows the forces and key factions a way to save face. Winner and loser. That is why there have been formalities of surrender in the years after the Thirty Years War.

Fig 68
Then Came Reconstruction. 

In 1941,  the invading Germans were treated as liberators:

Fig 69

Then came the occupation.

And the reprisals to that


WW 2 in both theaters of war had extensive preparations for the occupation of Japan, Austria, and Germany by virtue of having Civil Affairs and Military Government (CAMG) units and personnel plus a core of experienced persons from government. That which we put down in the late Forties is still there, that which we put down last year is gone.
This is from a case book (index above) used in the AG school for Civil Affairs and Military Government published in 1958 when the lessons learned from a successful and exemplary occupation and rehabilitation of a nation.  It’s long, best used for scanning here and there for maybe what we missed in Afghanistan and Iraq, and is playing out at this time in Syria.

Fig 70

On the other hand:

If Field Marshall von Rumsfeld had been a German:

Fig 71
Some speculated that it might have happened in Britain in the movie “It Happened Here”

Fig 72
The reality of the time now deemed so farfetched was how close a Nazi dominated UK could have happened. Edward VII of Great Britain was forced to renounce the crown, and thereafter as Duke of Windsor, was considered too close to Germany for comfort. Churchill had him isolated and his cronies in what was known as the “Cliveden Set” consisting of upper class politically influential aristocrats who favored closer relations with Germany. In part this is due to the way Hitler disposed of the Communist threat in Germany.
Churchill’s first task was to purge, remove and/or exile key members of the government who could and would have weakened Britain’s resolve and efforts. That this was done without bloodshed or incarceration is testimony on how this should be done. Less of a need to justify the unjustifiable afterward.
The odd ball flight of the number two Nazi, Rudolf Hess, in a Me‐110 to Britain on May 10, 1941 to negotiate a peace treaty with Britain by landing on the estate of Douglas Douglas‐Hamilton, 14th Duke of Hamilton and through him to such as the Cliveden Set. It didn’t work. Hess was arrested, convicted at Nuremburg and died in prison.

What If?

Few today realize that if any accommodation between the UK and Germany would likely either neutralized the British Navy, or created a nightmare scenario that a Nazi dominated navy could have included the French and British navies in addition to Italy’s. That would have compromised the Middle East, Suez and India as well as the British possessions in the Pacific. Canada would be problematic. This all didn’t happen in part because the French fleet opted out and left the Med to Italians.

Fig 73

As it was, the SS attracted citizens of occupied, POWs and nations allied with the Axis into its ranks who fought with distinction against the Soviets. These included an entire Army, the “Russian Liberation Army” led by a former Soviet Field Marshal, Andre Vlasov. The Battle of Berlin was defended to the end by the French SS Division, Charlemagne, and a Polish Cossack Division.
The British returned those from the USSR who fought for Hitler to Stalin, who massacred them all, men, women and children. When the Soviet Union broke up, the families of those murdered dug them up from unmarked mass graves, and re‐buried them with honors. Putin’s propaganda about
Ukrainian Nazis refers to the large number of Ukrainians who fought until 1949 against the USSR, even after Germany surrendered. Similar stories are heard from the Baltic States.

Fig 74
As some may have discovered as of late, that killing the enemy just makes them get madder. And they never forget nor forgive it. That which both sides can live with, or upon surrender will enable their nation to legislate, magistrate, and sanction those behaviors that serve the victor’s agenda….assuming that there was one. .

The Man in the High Castle, trailer
The German General Staff approached the British before the Invasion of France to see if they would support a coup. The offer was ignored, Poland was invaded and the rest is history. After the Vietnam War had been over a while, some French and the Vietnamese victors were comparing notes, and found that there wasn’t as much of a difference that could not have been overcome.

But that’s wishful thinking.

Fig 75
The bottom line goes to the fact that while battle may be like Poker but war is 52 Pickup. It’s the difference between the quick and the dead.

Fig 76