Friday, December 25, 2015

Savagery, Survival and the Bell Curve

Savagery, Survival, and the Bell Curve.

Freud had it backwards

Fig 001
Sigmund Freud’s quest to understand abnormal behavior missed the part about normal behavior.   Freud also established the myth that all human behavior is death oriented.  IMHO says that life is.  His “wish world” is the Real World.  Religion of his day is ideology of today.

Normality Defined.  What the hell do you mean by normal? 

The exact measure of what is normal, consider all the people you have met in family reunions, marriages, funerals, Thanksgiving and Christmas, may including the office party.  Choose a value or standard you feel applies and arrange all of them into rank ordering depending on the measure you chose.  The Middle Two Thirds is Normal. The statistical term used is the normal “bell” curve. 

Fig 002
If the value you measured could be assigned to each and everyone in the group, the sum of those values (income, weight, IQ, or EQ) divided by the number of individuals is the Mean (also called arithmetic average).   The normal “range” of what was measured can be measured by how tight the shot group is, and this value is called a Standard Deviation, which in management speak is Sigma.  They give “Black Belts” in Six Sigma which six accounts for 99.72% of the cases.
IMHO uses two Sigma or two Standard Deviations in the middle to define “normal”. That equates to 62.68% on the chart above.    Four Sigma gets you 95.44% of the total.  Six Sigma (Black Belt) gets 99.72% of the cases. 

Simply put, there are two thirds in the middle and one sixth at each end.  Saints at one end, Sinners at the other. .

Fig 003

Pareto’s Law
Normal Curves as above are called “two tailed” distributions.  Pareto’s Law deals with “one tailed” distribution which holds that 80% of the results come from 20% of the causes.  Thus 80% of the hours come from 20% of the causes.  80% of the crimes are committed by 20% of the criminals. 
The “normal” curve applied to everyone in the middle two thirds (Two Sigma) commit 20% of the crimes. One Sixth commits 80% of the Crimes (Sinners) and one Sixth commit no crimes (Saints).

Fig 004

Normal people don’t run for President, nor even any work that takes time and effort away from survival (Food & Family, Roles, Rules and Tools) and a normal way of life.  They are neither Saints nor Sinners.  In any group focused on a problem, only one in six gives a damn.  Of them, only one in six will read the mail. Of them, only one is six will go to the meetings, and one sixth of them will run for office.

Statistical Significance.

This goes to the “so what” category.


 It doesn’t matter what is being measured, so long as it is statistically significant (it’s not a accident of collection or errant definition).  In short, small samples don’t mean much like four out of five hitmen prefer 9mm if only five hitmen were asked.  Then there is the definition of what is a hitman.
One and one equal two only if one and one are equal.  The sum of one banana and one apple is two fruits?  If matters what to who how high the water is, or how deep?  Bridges and boats differ. 

Circular Error Probability (CEP)

For those in the Field Artillery or combat aviation the CEP or Circular Error Probability is given as the odds of a target getting hit by a round or its fragments. Also known as a shot group


 Likewise, it is of fair importance that one knows the CEP of incoming rounds.   The German 88 Flak gun in an anti-tank role was a deadly threat to whomever rode in the valley of the deathly open space. The 88 had a very tight CEP and the MG 42 too for a light machinegun.

Images from the East Front


What is Normal Habitual Behavior?

The term “culture” is too politically correct for the warrior or wannabe warrior when killing the bastards is all that matters.  The tricky part is making the bastards out of habit do something stupid.  Sometime you want to corner them, other times to split them up.  Sometimes you want to make them charge, and sometimes you want to make them run, and sometimes you want them to quit.   Sometimes you want them to switch sides. 

Sun Tsu said that wining without fighting is the best.  Given that fighting without winning appears to be more often than not, perhaps this knot should be untied.

It all goes to the normal spread (middle two thirds) which may include the middle stamp out the ends.  The sum of our behavior goes back to the very first cell division back whenever.

From the Movie "Pulp Fiction" opening scene


Pareto’s Law and the Alpha.

The one sixth that does eighty percent of the results themselves fall under a smaller normal curve either one or two tailed.  In nature there are animals called “alpha” who get the eighty percent of the attention, food and/or sex.  They are more aggressive, more territorial, and more jealous of perks. It is the Alpha that drives action.

Mind Over Body

Ontogeny recapitulates Phylogeny on PurposeThe choices made at each bifurcation of the genealogical tree are, so says IMHO, neither random nor mutation.  Life, instinctively is for living, not dying.  The attractiveness of the alpha who gets the food, gets laid.  The will of the giraffe resulted in making a longer neck to reach the top branches.  This, of course, takes a continuity of effort. 

The behavior of trained animals can be through selective breeding produce breeds of very different characteristics.  Natural selection leverages that capacity to change as applied by the will of the bred.   
Likewise, the adaptation to a high level of trauma also marks the DNA with reactive action.  Most warm blooded species hate the cold blooded.  The horse that shies from a bitty snake, is a reflection of the time when they weren’t so bitty.

PLAY as Survival Training

The young of most species often display the record of choices made in the genealogical past as the individual grows.  Consequently, Play is training for roles to come. 
 In vertebrates the decision to mate in made by the female of the species based on an evaluation of the suitability of the male’s probability of producing viable and competitive offspring.  
The “suitability factor” as analyzed by the female often defies analysis, which any of my three ex-wives can note, that IMHO is clueless. Normally it is the male of the species that sports extra visual cues, while the female is often camouflaged to fit in the normal back ground.   The song and dance that males have to do is often quite extraordinary, but some mating rituals are synchronized.

Often the attractiveness of the male is through demonstration of attractive skill sets as often demonstrated during “rutting season” when the males compete for attention and for dominance a proof of a need to breed.

The males in some species meet the rest of the herd, flock, or gang only during mating season, then they go off and do “guy things”.   Some animals are really strange about that.  This showing off of the mating ability of the male often extends to combat, mock or not. 

One of the basic rituals to show competitiveness or suitability goes to showing the ability to Feed. The Dinner and a Date also extends to “doing lunch” and the meal prepared for guest of honor or on the occasion of a big meeting.  Such is often the sum and substance of a day well spent.
From the UPORFA Conference in Buenos Aires

The Psychological Roles necessary to demonstrate the capacity to Feed and Breed, goes to that of the Mother, Father, and Child.  The mother nurtures, the father protects, and the child is dependent on both.  In some species, the statistical probability of infant survivability is achieved by long gestation, by redundancy (lots of kids), and by effective combat skills, attitudes, procedures, tactics, and techniques.



Habits and Habitual Behavior.

 Normal behavior (two Sigma) then should be called “habits” of any given group set.  In sex, war and politics.   There is a resistance within the Warrior and Bellicose Creed that utterly hates any reference to culture as too politically Correct, Homo, and/or Coffee Break poppycock.
 If, however the Warrior is also a Hunter, then the concept of the habitual behavior becomes important.  One needs to know when and where the prey feeds, breeds, and/or hides out.  The study of enemy doctrine and task organization is exactly the same as studying where fish, fowl or reindeer are so they can be your lunch or trophy.   

This goes to what IMHO calls F4F and consists of the basic structure of habitual behavior aka culture: Food and Family, Roles, Rules, and Tools.

Tools include techniques, skills, equipment and so forth. The selection of Tactical Imperatives in a physical confrontation is a way of analyzing survival behavior, human and/or animal. The Vertical axis of the Tactical Imperative menu is the parts of the being or groups anatomy that is used in combat. This includes the brain, nervous systems, vision, hearing, voice, lungs, guts, legs, arms and fists.  The horizontal axis is a simplified set of modes, stimulus and response which when activated is like a four dimensional Pachinko game.

Normal hunting behaviors involve both offensive and defensive (stimuli and response) in a single maneuver.  The lion is evading detection by lowing the profile in the grass.  The Impala in the second frame has successfully evaded the clutch of this old one eyed lion.

The social value of being able to bring in the dinner enhances the image of the hunter in the soul of the diner.  Symbolically, the human species is still tied to the dinner-date ritual, but other features that add to the attractiveness of the male to the female.  As for female wiles, a wink and a wiggle turns the hero into a blank dot. 

Group behavior of many species have collective as well as individual skill sets for the purposes of being the diner instead of the dinner.  Or at least avoiding being lunch.

The Military Decision Making Process (MDMP) should include Technology and Habits to make it METT-TH.  Time belongs under terrain as weather is already there including BMNT and time to do the mission is already in the Mission Statement.  Habitual behavior applies to all the other factors including Mission.  The enemy’s doctrine and doctrinal templates are in fact a study of enemy habits. 
This changes the old acronym by adding technology, and expanding civilian considerations to include all habitual behavior, even ours

Body Over Mind, Usually

In the normal course of living, it is habitually Body Over Mind that drives everyday choices.  Reason only interferes with habit when there is a choice or decision that can be consciously noted, identified, and/or measured.  This goes to steak vs chicken, regular vs unleaded, beer vs wine, buy or to buy which is the question. The rest is run by habits coded within the DNA that also cues behaviors at selected points in the growth and experience of the individual.  Like puberty and senility.

Central to understanding habits of one or many includes an understanding of the Roles necessary to nurture and protect the young.  These, in vertebrates include Father, Mother and Child. Since the child is not up to speed, they become the favorite food for predators.  The psychological habitual roles play are summed up in Transactional Analysis as the urges to Rescue and Protect the Victim (child).

Thus the psychological drama triangle developed by Dr. Karpman is the rotation of roles even when there is neither victim nor villain.     

The dramatic roles two pairs of three, defense and offense can be played by a single person with neither villain nor victim.  It is only necessary to create the illusion of a villain or a victim.  This is the heart and soul of politics of the one and of the many.  

Stamp Collecting – Victim to Victimizer

Each time a role is switched with another player, the player gets an emotional “Stamp” certifying the proper buzz (high or low).  Charlie as player gets 3 victim stamps while Lucy gets a Manipulator stamp. Charlie then trades the 3 victim stamps for one dump stamp which can be traded in for depression stamps, rage stamps, and murder stamps.  A skillful player can play this on one hand.

The Rescue or Protection of a Victim is the favorite pastime of politicians and a motive for murder, mayhem, and war.  The common phrase heard in the courthouse, is that the defendant is the victim (defense) which justified offensive measures such as murder, manipulation, and madness. There are few political arguments that do not include defending children as the ultimate objective of Candidate Foghorn.    It is the fundamental justification used by Jodie Foster in Elysium:

As the justification for shooting down two ships filled with the sick from earth. 

The Rules

Each species, group, herd, tribe, clan, pod, or flock has sociological rules to govern habitual behavior to facilitate successful Roles in order to Feed and Breed (Food and Family).   Most of these behaviors are the net result of DNA coded instructions, which instructions require integration of local circumstances.  IMHO had divided a model of these Rules into two sets: Social Standing and Relations with the Physical World: 

For a Templar set of Rules they include:

And a different set for the Saracens:

The arm and hand signals used in these illustrations was developed by IMHO to avoid another acronym with eight wordy values to one in which uses the hands in open discussion with those who need to know.  

Fate is what is called “sources of authority” in political science.  In WW 2, surrender pamphlets dropped on German troops had to look official and be signed by an authority like Ike and/or Monty.  

WW 2 Propaganda is filled with examples of how the habitual behaviors of a culture could be leveraged to do or do not do something that supports allied objectives.  These go straight to the Food and Family biological imperatives by leveraging the Roles, Rules, and Tools of one side or another.

The Salacious and the Savage

 Two Step Bullshit.  Leveraging Roles, Rules and Tools back to Food and Family Is the hallmark of WW 2 propaganda leaflets, like the “safe conduct” above.   Themes and Symbols are the alphabet of Psychological Operations. The selection and design of themes and symbols are directed at specific target audiences, the most effective being the Two Step Bullshit which is used when the Decision Makers cannot be touched, but who are approachable to someone you can reach effectively.  

The NVA and VC military efforts in South Vietnam had failed by 1969 with their forces in Cambodia moved north to Laos.  The VC local guerilla forces under COSVN had been consumed by superior firepower of the Allies in Vietnam.  Some say that that the NVA objectives included annihilation of COSVN (Central Office of South Vietnam), the government of the Viet Cong. 

Communist efforts to seduce the drafted US soldiers to switch sides failed utterly.   So the draft dodgers and cowards on campus elevated treason to a virtue.  This was classic Two Step Bullshit which eventually reached Congress which pulled the plug and snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

Who’s Laying Her Now? 

This is a famous Nazi series dropped on US troops, The Girl You Left Behind

In addition to someone else getting yours, the price you pay is for someone else’s profit.
Then there is the heartstrings approach of what happens to the Family with you gone.

The emotion that the Germans wanted was that the GI would either quit or slack off fighting Germans.  The Grand Prize is to get the enemy to switch sides as indicated in the VC pamphlet. This goes to legitimizing the enemy as a real friend.   Machismo helps.

This requires leveraging the Rules that define who is the victim here, and assigning a Rescue and Protect buzz to the Traitor.

The fight against Bolshevism was the number one enemy that Europeans could unite.  In addition to Waffen SS units from European nations, the French sent a Volunteer legion and Frenchmen joined an SS Division Charlemagne (fought to the bitter end in Berlin). 

Essential to effective propaganda is the portrayal of the villain as murderous, manipulative, and/or mad so that the hero can play the same roles against the Villain (Offense vs Offensive Offense).   The Blue and Red get hard to discriminate one from the others. 

Fear and Loathing

Key to such vilification is to arouse both Fear and Loathing.

The Victims portrayed in such propaganda are women and children, as they ideologically are weak and vulnerable to villains of an inferiors sort, as in bestial. 
In George Orwell’s book “1984” portraying a totalitarian state of the future created “NewSpeak” as a way to prevent dissension, dissent, and dissolution.
The aim of Newspeak is to remove all shades of meaning from language, leaving simple concepts: (pleasure and pain, happiness and sadness, goodthink and crimethink” ….Wikipedia on Newspeak.

The inferior are out to get you!

Protect your women, children and old people from the savage beast. Who, ironically are super beings that manipulate the world unseen by the upstanding and honest!

The Manipulative and vindictive are everywhere.   The elections now in swing at this time are full of villainy from the manipulative vicious and evil.  Including toenail fungus.  


Propaganda leverages the imagery of the wholesome family as that which must be nurtured and protected.

In accordance with the Rules (Fate) in order to get Fame and Face, one must use the Tools to smite the foe.  Harshly.


To be continued….
Gordon S Fowkes, LTC USA RET, M.Ed., KCTJ

Friday, December 4, 2015

Inverse ISIS Adversity

Inverse ISIS Adversity
Horrible as ISIS psychological operations are, they also open a number of windows on their deepest fears.  The key to understanding this is the Law of the Inverse Attribution Reflex aka LIAR.  The LIAR brags of his weakest virtue and blames others with his strongest vice. 

“The sick in soul insist that it is humanity that is sick, and they are the surgeons to operate on it.  They want to turn the world into a sickroom. And once they get humanity strapped to the operating table, they operate on it with an axe.”  104. Eric Hoffer, The Passionate State of Mind.

The massacre and torture of women, children, and any who don’t bow at the right angle is an exemplar of the deepest fears that women, children and non-conformists pose to the faithful.  The same gimmick was used by the Nazi’s against Jews who they accused of being both inferior and a clear and present danger to the Volk.  Folks, it’s one or the other, Inferiors cannot be a danger to those who are superior.  The constant refrain of the Super Race was overcompensation for a deep feeling of inferiority.  
From Wilson's Favorite Flic - Birth of a Nation

The constant rampage against unbelievers by ISIS et al, is in fact a deep fear of the power of unauthorized thought.  If, as a thousand years of Muslim protection of those “Of the Book” (Books of Abraham) showed, that those “of the Book” did not threaten the continued existence of Muslim polities. Why now? 

The constant use of Gitmo Orange is testimony of the devastating threat that Gitmo posed to the terrorist that is presented. If not, some other color would be used, if any.  The necessity of continued use of Gitmo Orange also shows the tricky and resourceful of their greatest fear…orange.

The Soviet Massacre of the bourgeoisie paved the way for the apparatchik who took over the same dachas, wheels, and sycophants. One the revolution is attained, it must be conserved.  The counter-revolutionary is the image of the revolutionary on the flip side of the cycle. Absent any connection with the real world, the cycle goes in circles and nowhere else.

LIAR works within normal parameters, as defined by one standard deviation above and one below the mean. That is Two Sigma. A more precise measurement is readily available for the reader’s verification by taking everyone the reader meets at family gatherings (Christmas, Thanksgiving, Party Day, wedding and funerals) and rank order all in accordance with any useful variable.  The middle two thirds is normal.

LIAR is also a guide for the formation of tactics, techniques, procedures as well as strategies to unleash the power of the weakness against the powerfully weak.  Instead of making super mensch out of ISIS terror, it is to delegitimize fear of the weak as power.  Humor works by making the terrorist a joke, preferably within their own ranks, as such assaults the sense of self-worth.   

The Victim to Victimizer is a cycle tied to Karpman’s concept of the Drama Triangle of victim, rescuer and prosecutor.

This, however requires a villain, whose villainy justifies counter villain extraordinary measures.