FAKE OFFICERS AND FUBAR IN THE PENTAGON

Fake Officers & FUBAR in the Pentagon

 There is a malignant growth in the Pentagon of several generations and many administrations that has effectively neutralized the combat power of at least the Army.  And weakened the links between it and the other services, to the point that after its most successful land operation in its history, failed to defeat a fractious but rabid irregular foe, and failed to stand up effective governance in Iraq and Afghanistan.  Something it had done successfully in Japan and Germany.  And the entire misadventure has been managed by fake officers not confirmed by the Senate as Officers of the United States.

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The Transformed by the Fake

(The President) shall nominate, and by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, shall appoint Ambassadors, other public Ministers and Consuls, Judges of the supreme Court, and all other Officers of the United States, whose Appointments are not herein otherwise provided for, and which shall be established by Law: but the Congress may by Law vest the Appointment of such inferior Officers as they think proper, in the President alone, in the Courts of Law, or in the Heads of Departments.

The fact that these fake officers have not been confirmed by the Senate breaks the Constitutional limits and controls over the military, judiciary, and executive personnel in critical positions considered expressions of the sovereignty of these United States.  All such “Officers of the United States” include ambassadors, consuls, cabinet members, federal judges, and all military officers down to Butter Bar.  As such, each Officers’ word is law, enforceable in court as such. 

Survival Imperatives Differ - Officers vs Civil Servants

The survival imperatives of Civil Servants vs military officers differ dramatically between the Job Description vs the Efficiency Report (OER) on file.  The Personnel File, once called the 201 File, contains the list of assignments and schools together with associated OER.  One slip, and late in one’s career it can end under the Up or Out policy.   This hits usually in the Second Decade of service with odds as low as fifty percent for survival, depending upon the current SWAG.  Been there, done that. 

The Officer’s career assignments are determined on a competitive and centrally controlled process.  The end result is the selection of officers in senior grades, usually O-6 (Colonel and Navy Captain) who has the expected preparation and performance.

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The Civil Service Job Description and table of organization gives authority and territory upon which continued employment is grounded. This is dependent upon connections, favors, and a strangle hold over processes.  The assignments of Civil Servants are principally under the control of the Servant, with the selection and promotion process subject to compromise and manufacture. It is rigged, and with few external set of standards applied to selections for promotion or assignment.  Been there, done that.  

This lack of objective standards of performance or experience, taken collectively and protectively, mandates that military expertise by the military becomes a clear and present danger to civil service survival.  Complementing this banality is that the officers caught up in Civil Service traps must play the part of a puppet on a string.  This is how we lost the Middle East. 

WE KNEW THE CULTURE BEFORE

The current flap over ISIS, and of the diminished capacity of Iraq and Afghanistan to dealing with irregular and peer enemy forces, despite over fifteen years of US military effort and trillions of dollars, were preventable had the effort been fought by Officers of the United States, without the fatal influence of Fake Officers of the SES and their crony contractors.

The post mortems posted about the prewar estimates and post war operations has been laid at the door of cultural arrogance and incompetence at the level where the difference between Shia and Sunni was dismissed, in favor of a turnkey Kansas under the baleful gaze of Neo-Conservatives.  The blame has been shifted in-house to denounce stability (nation building) as a righteous military mission.

The problem with that assessment is that it ignores that the US Army had trained for decades in Rear Area Combat Operations (RACO), Civil Affairs and Military Government, and Psychological Operations all of which I had extensive exposure to during that training effort which filled the time between Vietnam and 9-11.   Likewise, the capacity to operate at Field Army level with multiple corps and divisions was destroyed. 

In order for an officer to get his or her Military Occupational Specialty (MOS) prior to 9-11 approved in CA and PSYOPS, one had to submit a PSYOP or Civil Affairs Estimate of the Situation that necessarily covered such niceties as Shia and Sunni.  Or Pashtunwali.  Where did these estimates go?

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Draft of What Was Known in CA and PSYOP

Why were the capacities to fix and administer devastated and/or conquered territories for which preparations long precede D-day, H-Hour deleted?  Instead of Civil Affairs brigades and PSYOP groups prepping the battlefield, only a handful of Army Reserve Officers were given a back seat at the briefing. 

TENURED (SES) AND THE TEMPORARY (Officers)

Rumsfeld has long left the Pentagon, but the programs that he advanced had been long in the plotting, going back to, at least, Desert Storm.  It occurred to a number of my fellow veterans that the “Regular Army” was at fault proceeding with policies that guaranteed their promotions in a competitive fashion, over the necessities of actually winning in war.  Military officers’ tenure in the Pentagon, however, rarely exceed four years, and usually run three.  It is not possible for a decades long military doctrine run from inside the Pentagon be done with the connivance of commissioned officers of the United States.  They then are the hand puppets of those permanent employees (Civil Service) welded to their desks.

COMBAT SERVICE SUPORT

The glue that held Field Army and Corps operations together was the force structure in the US Army Reserve, and to a large extent the Army National Guard with counterparts in the Air Force and other services.  The glue came about due to the unglamorous role that glue, as in logistics and service support did not facilitate competitive promotions in the Active Components.  The result was the massive transfer of unglamorous activities (service support and combat service support) to the Reserve Components. 

Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait brought a sudden and traumatic shock to the Pentagon that the US Army, nor other services, could go to war without the Reserve Components. 

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ARFORGEN

http://gordonswar.blogspot.com/2015/10/arforgen-death-of-army.html

Once Baghdad had been secured, however, the glue was dissolved as was the corps along with the core of logistics, combat service support, which was banished from the Army dictionary as defunct and obsolete.  Since then, large scale maneuvers became problematic at best with maneuver replaced by rotation under ARFORGEN (Army Force Generation) designed to provide equitable opportunity to participate in combat for promotion and career development purposes. 

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Likewise, while all units in the Armed Forces had been aligned to war time plans, the new “transformation” mandate under Rumsfeld, replaced any coherent defense strategy with blizzards of “snowflakes” from his imperial orifice.   Rumsfeld had taken the measure to transfer senior military officers to the field where they could be more useful, and replaced them with senior civil servants aka Senior Executive Service aka SES.  Then abolished the field commands these military officers might have been assigned to.  

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Under Transformation, the Corps was abolished and along with it the well-oiled close air support system was broken from the days when a request for an airstrike was monitored by the Air Force and silence was approval.  Too many Medals for Valor including the Medal of Honor have been awarded due to a failure of approval of immediate airstrikes due to the abolition of the Corps.

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PREPLANNED  AND IMMEDIATE AIR SUPPORT

Such was the case of the “transformation” process that proceeded to create a collection of “units of action” (instead of companies, battalions, regiments and brigades) that would be perfectly suited for future combat, the shape of which was to be determined by magic crystal ball.  Said crystal ball being ensconced in the Office of Net Assessments, which was designed to destroy the Services’ pet projects.  And “verified” by war gaming but not validated by the Schools or the Field.

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Any policy that has a life of over three years is not likely from a military staff in the Pentagon. In previous years, the Army was divided into “branches” (Armor, Artillery, Military Intelligence, etc) which branches governed doctrine and training and was active in procurement.  Branches have been abolished, and the dominance of doctrine and equipment has been sucked up into the Pentagon, and away from the Service Schools that melded field experience with national requirements.  The operative model for Transformation was to turn the Army into modular units like ships in the Navy. 

Rummy was Navy. 

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TASK ORGANIZATION TOO COMPLICATED FOR REMFS

The Senior Executive Service (SES) which operates as if it were consisting of Generals and Colonels, are not “officers of the United States”, and their directives should not be considered “orders” in the military sense as they do not convey the sovereignty of these United States.  The oath of enlistment or office for service members requires obedience to the “officers” appointed over them, which Civil Servants are not.

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TRANSFORMED INTO TABLES FROM ON HIGH

While a purge of those fake officers is not practical, the severance of the malignancy from the chain of command is easily obtained by the Senate saying that it will not consider any efficiency of fitness report by other than an Officer of the United States” in the process of confirming the promotions of military officers.  This will instantly produce a REMF stampede from the Pentagon of officers seeking real units to serve in.  These can be readily funded by the shredding of the payrolls of the SES. 

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If need be, those whose services are essential can be presented to the Senate for approval and concurrence.  In that manner, the Senate regains control over a Pentagon run wild. In addition, lateral entry of personnel and units as has been the wartime custom since before George Washington, can be set up.  

A UNIFORMED GENERAL STAFF CORPS!

And, finally, the Army needs a General Staff Corps trained to run things from the top, to provide the linkage between brass and field.  After WW 1, the concept of a General Staff was denounced as too Germanic.

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In addition, and foremost, the present efforts of the Army to reconstitute itself must be supported in defiance of those whose payroll depends upon its demise. Corps and divisions are being reassembled along with the necessary combat service support (logistics).  

Gordon S Fowkes, LTC USA RET, KCTJ

Reconstitution of the US Army

Reconstitution of the US Army

Once upon a time when the Third Reich was young, an enterprising journalist published the complete Order of Battle and mobilization plans for the Wehrmacht.  Himmler had him kidnapped and interrogated as to leads and sources.  His answer was open source, from local papers citing who was being assigned where.  He was warned and let loose

The same use of open sources (OSINT) is available on LinkedIn.  The individual profiles of the members who have a direct or indirect connection with the Services, particularly the US Army show that the Army is in the process of reconstituting its forces to face a new revised and more dangerous array of threats.  Far from the rotational mini-brigade expeditionary model, the new models is restoring the Theater, Corps and full divisions to full capacity.

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Projected penetration of Soviet Forces as a model of high speed mechanized warfare

In addition, references in discussions show that the field artillery and air support are being reunited, and the logistics reconstituted under the command of the commander’s intent rather than an acquisition manager’s contract.  The sources are links to a new family of DOD doctrinal publications.

Assignment Algorithms

Some of that which points to this reconstitution is indicated by the assignment of officers to “targeting” and logistics assignments at corps and higher.  This restores what was once called the Air Ground Operations Center at the old Corps and suggests that a restoration of COSCOM and DISCOM may be under way.  There are many references of officers and enlisted to I, III, and XVIII Corps when up until now did not exist, even called defunct, on Wikipedia.  The repeated reference to Theater suggests that the _COM (CENTCOM, etc.) may be replaced by the new Theaters (XXXXX). 

The type of war fighting done right

That a major reconstitution program, normal at any military level after a battle, is not being accompanied by marching bands, cheer leaders, and sonorous intonations from the pompous and egregious is significant.  The most likely outcome is that these new Theaters will be aligned to a specific piece of the world.  That raises the questions of how will the order of battle for these new corps and theaters be constituted.

The Capstone Mission

That which tied unit cohesion to combat mission prior to Transformation was the link between units of all components of the Services and Components into what were called “Capstone Missions” and “Capstone alignments” that brought myself as a battalion commander in contact with the Canadians on my left flank in NORTHAG near where two Roman legions were slaughtered….the Teutoberger Wald. The Capstone program was the result of a Congressional mandate that insisted that each and every unit must have real world mission in order to be funded.  I was at the Congressional House Senate Conference Committee when it was agreed upon.

The Capstone program tying battalions like mine to places in Germany was sabotaged, and a new order of nonsense was sent in harm’s way.  This is what is being fixed.

Un-dropped Shoes (organization and training)

As such several un-dropped shoes remain.  The reality of major commands expected to move or stay in one piece calls for a deletion or elimination of rotational assignments and training. The cost in the degradation of mid and senior level tactical competence in the most recent unpleasantness due to the repression of the chain of command from three stars to three stripes under Transformation and ARFORGEN must be addressed.

The biggest shift in staffing a large force from existing subordinate elements excludes rotations of units, and reinstitutes more individual replacements along with a system to do so.  The individual rotation programs of all wars up to and including Vietnam was costly in terms of the FNG getting killed too quickly which increased the need for more FNG’s (Funny New Guy).  The existing members of the FNG’s unit do not like to befriend one who is about to die, until he has not. Thus the skills of the Good Old Boys are not passed on to the FNG which increased the mortality rate.

As close as one can get without being thre

The one stellar thing attributable to the rotational modular brigade was and is extraordinary unit morale, which after a decade of rotations, is still high.  A balance between the casualty rates, low in this war, must be developed to retain unit identity to enhance cohesion.  The draftee conscript army only works on home turf or next door, otherwise cohesion suffers.  The US Army at the end of the Vietnam War was one step away from mutiny.  The classic work on the Disintegration and Cohesion of the Wehrmacht showed that as long as the primary group is intact, and a sense of identity with the homeland was maintained, no amount of inducement by propaganda worked.

 

The Eastern Front

The German Army in WW 2 used replacements from the same part of Germany to units also raised from there.  Thus the FNG factor was reduced.  Similar efforts have been done in the British Army through their regimental system which the regiment is the base from where units and personnel were deployed and to where they returned.

One way to restore cohesion is to base replacements through training establishments aligned with specific units and specific areas, like regional or states. The application of All Source Training which includes a training establishment that uses the Chain of Command in each and all training exercises.  Those units and activities can be geographically close to the unit base, or be able to move to the unit.

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The one on the left, then, was when I took the picture in Vietnam

That which is not physically present in the task organization up two and down two and sideways, must be represented or replicated.   That includes units on the flanks, sides and in support.  

The hardest part of training army tactical units is the absence of things that go boom anytime of the day or night, as in field artillery and air support, and in the open.  And done off post as well as on.  Perhaps some form of noisy drone system could provide the audio visual once “shot out” is shouted out.  

An All Source Training establishment would rely on visual reality in a major way. It could establish local training centers where a wandering reserve or Guard officer, could plug into an ongoing “war” as a “replacement”. 

An All Source training establishment would focus on the echelon of command (Corps, Division, Brigade, etc) not the branch or specialty (as is planned today).  Individual and collective training must be done in context of all the other players or participants being there.

The 75^th Training Command Model

The model for echelon of command level focused training is based on the model used for decades at the 75^th Maneuver Area Command (now the 75^th Training Command) based on my experience there in the golden days of yesteryear (1979-1983) when command post exercises were the domain of “battle boards” of acetate, green tape and grease pencil. Communications was by wire.  This process was automated about the time I moved on with Battle and from their website:

“The 75th Training Command prepares large military units for deployments and other missions, by conducting live and virtual scenario-based training, while mentoring senior leaders on effective organizational decision-making….the Training Command now offers virtual and gaming formats. Whether stateside or deployed to a combat zone, military commanders do not lead their units in a vacuum.

 Each commander carefully selects, mentors and oversees a team of supporting staff that manages critical areas including personnel, logistics and operations.

 A commander's ability to keep the troops safe and accomplish the mission is directly related to the professionalism, competence, and teamwork of those staff leaders.

 And while the 75th has predominantly supported Army units in the past, the command now provides similar high quality training to other military branches, non-military agencies, and partner nation military forces.”

Those in the 75^th have historically been savvier about higher echelon operations than the Combined Arms Center at Ft Leavenworth and logistics than Ft Lee. This is due simply to the extended and repeated use of “All Source” inputs and outputs in the form, format, and content of information from outside the unit.  Those giving the exercises gain more than the exercised.  This also was an excellent resource for the development of real world mission awareness.

http://www.usar.army.mil/Commands/Training/75thTNGCMD/AboutUs.aspx

The fly in the soup is the old concept of micromanagement from on high of the details of individual and small unit training including what is called Military Occupation Specialty (MOS) which is used to build empires on high ground and sap the purity and essence of unit combat readiness.  If MOS training is that important to Personnel on High, it should be separately funded from unit readiness. 

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Taken in 1924

The Tactical Shape Shifters

These are transitional times in which the old and the new intermix. There is nothing new under the sun, but a lot of weird stuff keeps cropping up. The factors of METT-TC with a minor adjustment (adding technology to one of the “t” and replacing the C with Culture), remain constant over time, except technology and its effects on the rest.  The largest change in the tactical milieu in the last 4,000 years is the effect of the bullet and fragment storm that broke first in the Crimean War and came to fruition in Flanders in WW 1.

http://templarmilitaris.blogspot.com/2012/05/principles-of-close-order-combat-before.html

The same alternatives exist historically when technology affects the means of mayhem, hence the Tactical Imperative and the Tactical Milieu that are the shape shifters.

All Source Training

Gordon S Fowkes, LTC USA RET

All Source Operations

The term “all source comes from combat intelligence in which all of the various sources of information are included for planning, conducting, processing and distribution of the intelligence produced.  As applied to combat, logistics, and administrative units, activities, and/or personnel in combat (or showtime) all relevant agencies and sources of goods, services, equipment and information come together in a given locus of command.   Locus equals anything between squad leader to CINC WORLD and all points between.

At any given locus, given proper support, there are inputs and connections to a finite number of points of contact who interface with the command process.  This is not peculiarly military in nature, because any given civilian economic enterprise is in a state of continuous, contiguous, and concurrent state of affairs 24/7. If the shipment doesn’t arrive on time, sales and production are inflicted. 

As the sales staff or machine gunners are interlocked with the market or those on the battlefield, so must the chain of command.  As in the real world, the boss of bosses either is involved in what goes on to the lowest level or risks losing market share, as in another city falling to ISIS. 

THE WORLD OF NOW

A common error in both operations and training is to leave a link out of the multiple loops that links the inside to the outside.  That means turning on the electricity, unloading the truck, and ordering new supplies.  In combat terms it means direct communication up two levels, and in the modern world, monitoring several others.  Thus the squad leader must be able to monitor the company net, at least one of them. The battalion commander has a wide range of outsiders that must remain in positive contact including logistics, support, and adjacent units.

If any link is broken or not present, things that should happen at the right time, happen at the wrong time or not at all. Such is the case of responsive fire support in comparing such to the paradigms of previous wars.  The table of organization for a tank company had two tanks, one for the company commander and one for the US Air Force fighter pilot. The older mechanized infantry units rarely had a reap pilot so the vehicle became an S3 asset.  The existence of co-located fire support assets linked to a given unit gave rise to the position of fire support coordinator (FSCOORD).

1969 Vietnam - 2/2 Mech Infantry in War Zone C, and my OB notebook

All Source Organization

The Tactical Operations Center (TOC) becomes the central nervous center linking the brain to the spinal column, the nervous system (motor, sensor, sympathetic and parasympathetic included).   In the prehistoric times of my generation, that meant every radio net in the TOC was monitored by all.  Phones required a written note, distribution and carbons as needed. 

In ancient times, like in Vietnam, Korea, WW2 and Desert Storm, the commander was immersed in multi-source inputs in the back ground, ears tuned to key phrases on any of them for information of immediate interest. Thus any medivac indicated to the commander that forces were in contact, before the report, if any, was forwarded.

In fact, in my tour in the DTOC of the 1^st Air Cavalry Division 1968-69, the absence of a steady flow of middling reports was a clear indicator that someone was too busy fighting to engage in reporting.  That called for listening to the nets the forces in contact used.  We even used the EW assets of the division to listen in just to stay up to snuff. The non-combat variant is management by walking around.

All Source Training

A rifle squad does not operate in a vacuum except when in deep doo doo.  And that happens when Murphy interjects gremlins and chaos on well prepared intentions.  Any realistic training must also replicate Murphy based on the vulnerabilities of the current mission, operations and forces not under the control of the unit in the hot box. 

That means an array in training of those who replicate the world outside the hot box of the unit(s) in training, and on site where realistic. That especially includes the enemy, an enemy that operates in accordance of an enemy plan at least two levels above.  It a link is missing, it must be replicated realistically.  This is the normal organization with those units that give large command post exercises. In a defensive scenario of a brigade enemy forces up three levels must be replicated in the office and three down in the case of defense.  This is the proper role for military training organizations, that of replicating the outside world.  And, if one must, contractors that specialize.

Since the commander of a unit does not decide on what courses of action to take in combat, except as the result of what the situation in existence calls for as in METT-TC.  The unit commander’s actions to attack, defend, withdraw or call for reinforcement are based in the Real World not under the control of the trained unit.

All Source Planning

Since all operations in the field depend upon missions assigned from above, so must All Source training. The usual mode of training is based on the commander’s estimate of what his unit’s mission essential task list (his own, not the nonsense from on high) consists of.  The normal mode is for the Operations Officer (S3/G3) then determines what will be done in training, based on available ranges, gas, ammo and threat of high level visitors.  The intelligence officer has no role in commander/operations planning.

Since the enemy order of battle and plans are determined at the level of the exercise, or in accordance with next higher’s whim or whimsy, there is no intelligence to trigger the events.  And, when A company attacks B Company, their tactics, equipment, strength that comprise enemy order of battle are common knowledge.

In Vietnam, officers were assigned to the S2/G2 position by those shot up, screwed up, short or the FNG (funny new guy).  Every once in a while a trained S2 or MI guy was accidentally assigned as the S2/G2 and the results were astounding.  The Tet Offensive’s post mortem conducted by the Target Acquisition, Combat Intelligence, Surveillance in Vietnam (TACSIV II) to fix the problem that all the necessary information to predict Tet was already  in the system.  I was a ride along observer. 

The TACSIV solution was drawn from a CDEC experiment in an organic MI Battalion to the division, removing from ASA control and placing a qualified MI officer in S2/G2 slots with additional MI personnel in support. The difference before TACSIV there was no intelligence which resulted in not so intelligent command decisions, to one in which the Commander had real intelligence.  This modus operandi is what I believe has been fully integrated and implemented in our ground forces today. 

All training must be situation initiated, which includes intelligence reports, change of mission, and/or of terrain and troops available.  The control of All Source stimuli should be done with the plans of two levels up, or if they are too busy filling out charts and PowerPoint graphics, do it yourself.  When I was commanding an Army Reserve MI battalion some decades ago, I did the creation of new circumstances myself, acting as if something new had just come up.

It was at Ft Hood when the 304^th MI Bn was in ANACDUTRA (Summer Camp) given the remnants of the old training cycle modus idioticus which wasted the opportunity to go straight to battalion level operations. This was facilitated by the fact that the Commander of the 49^th Armored Division TXNG sent his entire division to the field which gave a target rich environment for MI/EW.  I had ensured that a sense of hostile Speznas troops were in the area, requiring full security including outposts were in place.  

I then called my OPFOR squad to attack which brought the battalion to wide awake, and then I issued the order that the battalion was to create a direction finding base at a distance from the present location.

Reality, and unintended consequences worked in my way.  It appeared that my focus on following regulations and doctrine was undermining the machinations of the local REMFCOM. So they sent the Deputy Commanding General on a night raid by helicopter to my position.  This came to light when a very worried Operations Sergeant told me in the middle of the briefing that one of the guards had placed the Brigadier General in the Front Leaning Rest Position. Doomed, I was, until the BG showed up grinning like a Cheshire Cat.  This was well before BMNT.  

And he loved it.

The growth of simulation and command post exercising to date, is often remoted, and plugged into anyone’s command if needed.  This allows a Full Spectrum All Source training capability to replicate combat against the Little Green Men on Mars, or step back in time to Cannae.  All under the command and control of the participating unit. 

All Source Support

There is, at present, a huge investment in personnel and activities to run the micromanaged ARFORGEN system which as an unintended consequence, leaves out the chain of command in each and every step of the present ladder of skills which also has the unintended consequence of dumbing down the chain of command.  As such, the collective combat capabilities in combat have degraded to the level once reached just before Korea.

Those same assets can be cross trained and exercise much in the manner of what the 75^th Maneuver Command did, as well as the III Corps Battle Simulation Center did in previous century. This support can be fixed and/or roaming.  Fixed assets would be the locations where a local units (AC, RC, NG) can plug those who are to be trained.  Roaming assets go to the unit, and usually consist of experts in specific fields. I have used both on both sides of the battle board.

Left, the Vale Cento, a Templar Galley in 3D,
Right is the Kobayashi Maru exercise in Star Wars

A full blown All Source training organization can be created by a modest change of direction of the present ARFORGEN and service school system.  In this modality, since the missions involved All Source and Full Spectrum operations the development of emerging doctrine can resume and forces deployed with little or no delay. I had 72 hours to move my battalion to the port of embarkation. My mantra was that we had to fight with what we had.  This was training to fight in accordance with current estimates of the strategic point of view.

Profitable Humanity vs the Problematic

Profitable Humanity vs the Problematic

Whether a person is a Muslim or a Mormon means little when dealing with humanity and trying to maintain a sense of humanity. A huge chunk of humanity has voted no to their old countries as did millions did a century ago and more to their "old countries" to come to the US and Argentina.

What they wanted then and now is a way to feed and protect their families and a way to reach their human potential unfettered by the chains of the past.

The Task

What to do with this mass migration not only involves the potential host countries but with the active participation of the refugee population through their designated representatives. This is more than just a political issue, it is more economic and what the refugees offer as skills, knowledge and attitudes are the assets a smart polity will address. We must create a mechanism where the Syrians and others from troubled lands nearby where problems and desired solutions can be aired.

We have roughly two months to complete this process, one month ago it should have started.

The order of magnitude is millions, Dealing with tens of thousands or even a couple 100,000 is yesterday's old news. One cannot bottle a couple of million entrepreneurs without trouble afoot.

There is no tradeoff between security and humanitarianism as to deny the one defeats the other. There are no security measures on the table that can deal with stuffing a couple of million from the cradle of civilization into jars, tents and hovels that won't fail utterly. Those millions presently penned in UN Concentration Camps will join the present exodus.

There is no viable force short of biological and nuclear warfare that can effectively stop migration, and that has a serious capability to blow up. Now is the time to get serious about maintaining the momentum of the movement to leverage advantage, While Europe is already packed with people, there are many other parts of the world where a few million could be moved, but moved in a manner in which the refugees are part of the decision making process,.

The motives on combatants and all others affected by a conflict is at the core, biological survival of self and of the primary group, day to day, and generation to generations (Food and Family). Enabling these are Psychological Roles to protect and nurture, done in accordance with Sociological Rules of social status and the land, aided by Technological Tools.

Singing and dancing, marksmanship and bulldozers are Tools.

The Syrian exodus of entire families including the kids is about as clear a statement that staying in Syria is a clear and present danger to biological survival. If those who left saw a viable alternative to go back, it will take a generation to act on it.

Those who stay behind have made a choice that cooperation can be done sufficient to continue biological survival. Given the continued butchery by ISIS of even those who volunteer from foreign lands, the bloom is getting tarnished. North Korea is an example where the people have accepted utter nonsense as reality as they see no alternative. ISIS does a better job on its turf than North Korea.

The choice of Syrians is between an oppressive regime, scatterbrained rebels, a murderous ISIS, and a tepid West. If Assad's regime falls, there is little guarantee that the gaggle of rebels will do any better than those of Libya.

If the Syrian exodus were effectively settled anywhere, they would remain a not so latent threat to those who have murdered Syria. The Cuban enclave in Miami in spades would happen.

Thinking has little to do with decision making for the continued survival of the primary group, biological or not.

BIOLOGICAL; Food and Family

PSYCHOLOGICAL: Roles that protect and nurture the family

SOCIOLOGICAL: Rules that the Roles adhere to

TECHNOLOGICAL: The necessary Tools

Food & Family, Roles, Rules, and Tools that affect the de facto primary groups.

I call it F4F:

http://gordonswar.blogspot.com/2013/08/tea-leaves-goat-entrails-or-f4f-it.html

Or the shorter version

http://templarmilitaris.blogspot.com/2014/06/war-and-polity.html

The History, Closing the Ports of the Levant to Shipping by 13th Century

Part of the reason that the Ports of the Levant were shut down was to induce trade with India and the Far East to go through Cairo and then through the Red Sea. Once the Ottomans achieved a naval capability of note, they preferred trade to do through Ottoman Territory which until Iraq was taken, meant the northern over land route (Silk Road). 

When the Ottoman Empire was defeated in WW 1, the British and French sought to reopen the middle route, by way of Aleppo-Damascus to Baghdad to Basra and the Persian Gulf. The flow of commerce restored, also restored the vitality of the Lebanese, Syrian, and Iraqi people plus that of Israel. 

It should not be underrated the impact on culture and economy that reopening trade routes that had been effectively stifled for 500 years. If one were to use Google Earth to look at the snap shots taken and posted on the maps by link to see a fairly modern infrastructure. Competitive to comparable areas in the US outside the suburbs. 

What is afoot is the very old commercial and entrepreneurial that was freed by WW 1, vitalized by the French and British, and now searching to find itself after 500 years of economic oppression and 700 years of Turkish domination.  These refugees have had a taste of the good life, and they can't get it at home anymore.

 These are not refugees from a destitute and backwater background, they are from one already restored to a state of economic parity, given the BigMac Index.

Stabilization and Destabilization Operations, a Continuum.

Stabilization and Destabilization Operations, a Continuum.

The Monsterization (demonization) of a Foe assumes that said Foe has no environmentally sound strategy for the survival of their people.  All living things, including the St Augustine grass that wants to hide in the flower bed, have a strategy for survival.  The core of that survival is day to day, and generation to generation. 

1

Pashtunwali 

All behaviors are directed at that goal (feed and breed).  Each species, faith, culture, group, and combat unit play specific Roles in the competition for feeding and breeding.  There are heroes and villains, some imaginary, some not.  The competition is played out according to a set of Rules (social status and the relation to the physical world).  In order to succeed in the Roles, in accordance with the Rules, Tools are used.  Tools normally are extensions of the body, like rifles, pistols, and the Tango.

2

Russian Destabilization-Stabilization Conquest of Crimea

Given the horrific expense of combat formations in fuel and ammunition, which expenditures damage those parts of the survival strategy as to invoke strong counter measures like IED's, Kamikaze, Banzai, and King Tigers.

3

Combat Service Support of Firepower

  

The principle problematic group in this fray are the Arabs who have just returned from a 900 year occupation by the Turks.  They had learned how to resist but not how to rule, and rule they want in accordance with their survival strategy.  The more we enhance their abilities to rule in accordance with their survival strategies, the more likely we are to defeat the counterproductive strategies of a bastardized and murderous blasphemy called ISIS.

4

Two Sides to Stab Ops

This requires a revision in US doctrine that does not segregate Stability Operations from Defense and Offense as it tends to be.  That means that there are Offensive Stability Operations that foment strategies that are both counterproductive for the malevolent and supportive of a positive adjustment in the Survival Strategies of the population, their culture and governance.

All the graphs and charts are already published, a few have to be expanded.